The School of Odds
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Ilves v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 63.06%1.59fair odd
EV -0.371%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.639%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.20%62.84%63.56%64.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5869.44%66.63%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 36.94%2.71fair odd
EV +0.117%
Edge +0.043%
Kelly +0.068%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.41%37.16%36.44%39.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.392.602.622.7141.84%38.44%38.17%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 63.06%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 36.94%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.707. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.710, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.117%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV +0.117%E +0.043%K +0.068%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-03 13:40
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.68%E -4.51%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.253%E -0.094%K -0.149%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 13:40
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.78%E -3.17%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.10%E -0.792%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-03 10:44
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.68%E -4.51%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.10%E -0.792%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:00
Bally Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.68%E -4.51%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.10%E -0.792%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:04
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.68%E -4.51%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.10%E -0.792%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 12:05
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.20%E -6.39%K -20.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.21%E -1.22%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:23
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.42%E -3.61%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 10:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.42%E -3.61%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.42%E -3.61%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 10:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.42%E -3.61%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 10:45
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -1.00%E -0.638%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -9.49%E -3.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-03 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -0.371%E -0.235%K -0.639%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -11.71%E -4.90%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 13:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 62.78%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%8.3%2026-10-03 10:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-10-03 12:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-10-03 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-10-03 12:00
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.99%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.36%3.1%2026-10-03 03:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.25%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%5.5%2026-10-03 10:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%6.2%2026-10-03 12:00
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%6.2%2026-10-03 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%6.2%2026-10-03 12:05
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%6.2%2026-10-03 12:05
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.69%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.91%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-10-03 13:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%8.6%2026-10-03 10:44
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%9.1%2026-10-03 10:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%11.2%2026-10-03 10:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%12.6%2026-10-03 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.56%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.41%13.0%2026-10-03 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-10-03 10:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 49.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.49%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.84%19.8%2026-10-03 10:45