The School of Odds
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Ilves v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 68.26%1.46fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -5.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%68.37%68.04%69.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.391.401.4373.53%71.88%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 31.74%3.15fair odd
EV -0.026%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.012%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%31.63%31.96%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.903.1535.71%33.79%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 68.26%; KalPa (Visit): 31.74%. For KalPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.151. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.150, with an expected value of -0.026%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.39%E -1.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -6.37%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-08 11:00
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -6.37%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 09:05
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.96%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 12:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.96%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.96%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 12:30
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.96%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 13:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.13%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 21:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.13%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 21:44
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.13%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.43%E -3.17%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.13%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-07 07:20
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-07 07:20
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.56%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.44%EV -4.47%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-08 10:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.55%E -3.35%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 10:59
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 09:40
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 12:00
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.16%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.012%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-04-08 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-04-08 15:25
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-04-08 14:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.16%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%2.9%2026-04-08 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-08 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-08 09:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-04-08 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11%5.3%2026-04-08 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.84%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%6.0%2026-04-08 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.84%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%6.0%2026-04-08 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.84%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%6.0%2026-04-08 11:50
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.84%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%6.0%2026-04-08 11:50
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.33%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.00%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.67%6.3%2026-04-08 14:50
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%8.4%2026-04-07 21:45
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.00%9.5%2026-04-08 11:50
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%10.5%2026-04-08 10:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.37%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%10.9%2026-04-08 11:00
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%11.2%2026-04-08 09:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%12.9%2026-04-08 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.06%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%15.0%2026-04-08 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.31%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%15.9%2026-04-08 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.83%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.24%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.93%16.9%2026-04-08 15:02