The School of Odds
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Ilves v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 70.28%1.42fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -7.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.42%70.38%72.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.351.3875.76%74.29%73.80%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 29.72%3.36fair odd
EV +1.05%
Edge +0.309%
Kelly +0.438%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%29.58%29.62%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.103.4033.33%31.70%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 70.28%; KalPa (Visit): 29.72%. For KalPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.05%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +1.05%E +0.309%K +0.438%G +0.005%4.6%2026-04-03 10:20
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.23%E -5.48%K -22.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +1.05%E +0.309%K +0.438%G +0.005%5.2%2026-04-03 10:00
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.23%E -5.48%K -22.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +1.05%E +0.309%K +0.438%G +0.005%5.2%2026-04-03 10:00
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -1.92%E -0.582%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-01 10:44
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -1.92%E -0.582%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-01 10:44
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.41%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 04:59
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.26%EV -5.12%E -3.80%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV -5.19%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-03 11:40
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.02%E -2.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.38%E -2.02%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 11:00
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 05:00
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 04:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 06:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.84%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 04:59
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.84%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 13:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.84%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 13:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.84%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 13:30
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.84%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.84%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 05:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-04-03 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-04-03 14:25
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 68.53%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.47%8.1%2026-04-03 14:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.91%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.25%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.84%2.9%2026-04-02 18:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.54%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.65%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-04-03 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.54%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.65%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-04-03 10:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.54%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.65%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-04-03 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%5.0%2026-04-03 05:29
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.65%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%6.2%2026-04-03 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%6.7%2026-04-03 10:20
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%6.7%2026-04-03 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%6.7%2026-04-03 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%6.7%2026-04-03 10:19
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.58%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%7.9%2026-04-03 05:30
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.63%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%8.9%2026-04-03 10:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%10.7%2026-04-03 05:30
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%11.4%2026-04-01 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.75%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.47%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.78%12.3%2026-04-03 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.71%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.18%15.2%2026-04-03 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%16.1%2026-04-03 05:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 56.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%16.9%2026-04-03 15:03