The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ilves v Jukurit

Kickoff: 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 72.25%1.38fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -9.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.95%72.36%72.32%73.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.301.3478.13%76.30%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jukurit (Visit)

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd
EV +0.462%
Edge +0.128%
Kelly +0.176%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.12%27.64%27.68%29.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.303.6231.25%29.73%30.30%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 72.25%; Jukurit (Visit): 27.75%. For Jukurit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.462%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -7.52%E -5.88%K -26.87%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV +0.462%E +0.128%K +0.176%G +0.001%5.7%2026-09-29 15:05
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.67%EV -4.63%E -3.51%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.33%EV -2.59%E -0.738%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-29 10:35
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 10:35
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 09:24
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 09:23
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.87%E -0.819%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 09:24
theScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.19%E -2.38%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 15:00
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.19%E -2.38%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-29 09:45
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.91%E -2.94%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.91%E -2.94%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.91%E -2.94%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 12:50
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 15:34
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 15:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 15:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -5.36%E -4.09%K -17.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-29 11:29
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.08%E -4.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-29 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%8.1%2026-09-29 15:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.74%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%2.9%2026-09-29 09:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.74%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%2.9%2026-09-29 09:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.74%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%2.9%2026-09-29 09:24
Coolbet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.64%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.33%3.1%2026-09-29 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.48%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%6.0%2026-09-29 15:00
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.76%5.34I 18.73%NM 17.63%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%6.2%2026-09-29 14:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-29 08:04
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-29 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-29 09:25
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-29 09:25
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%7.4%2026-09-29 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.29%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%8.8%2026-09-29 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.13%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%11.3%2026-09-29 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.05%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.59%13.0%2026-09-29 08:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.57%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.86%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%13.1%2026-09-29 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 59.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.60%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.12%15.6%2026-09-29 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 58.41%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.18%18.1%2026-09-29 15:19