The School of Odds
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Ilves v Jokerit

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 54.36%1.84fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.91%54.37%54.51%56.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.721.7862.50%58.62%58.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jokerit (Visit)

Prediction 23.28%4.30fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%23.26%22.98%25.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.964.104.2529.41%25.26%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV +0.662%
Edge +0.147%
Kelly +0.189%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.91%22.37%22.51%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.154.204.5027.78%24.07%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 54.36%; Jokerit (Visit): 23.28%; Draw: 22.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.662%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.35%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.73%EV -3.64%E -0.879%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV +0.662%E +0.147%K +0.189%G +0.001%6.3%2026-10-17 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.69%EV -3.79%E -2.14%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.05%EV -2.24%E -0.534%K -0.701%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.69%E -0.619%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.69%EV -3.79%E -2.14%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.05%EV -2.24%E -0.534%K -0.701%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.69%E -0.619%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 09:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.69%EV -3.79%E -2.14%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.05%EV -2.24%E -0.534%K -0.701%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.69%E -0.619%K -0.804%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 09:15
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.56%EV -3.25%E -1.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.85%EV -1.08%E -0.254%K -0.332%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -3.81%E -0.887%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 12:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.75%EV -4.88%E -2.79%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -9.23%E -2.37%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -4.93%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 09:25
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -6.51%E -3.78%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -4.57%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 09:14
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -6.51%E -3.78%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -4.57%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 09:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -6.51%E -3.78%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -4.57%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -6.51%E -3.78%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -4.57%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 09:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.90%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 03:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%EV -7.60%E -4.47%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -15.04%E -4.12%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -8.29%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 09:25
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.09%EV -7.05%E -4.12%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.72%E -3.39%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 09:24
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.23%E -5.52%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -12.72%E -3.39%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 03:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.34%EV -13.03%E -8.14%K -21.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -6.90%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.53%EV -12.09%E -3.08%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.75%EV -10.86%E -6.62%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.07%EV -19.70%E -5.71%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.18%EV -12.76%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-17 09:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.91%EV -11.94%E -7.37%K -19.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.73%EV -20.86%E -6.14%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.36%EV -19.47%E -5.41%K -7.49%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-17 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%3.8%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%3.8%2026-10-17 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%3.9%2026-10-17 13:00
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%4.1%2026-10-17 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%4.5%2026-10-17 13:55
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-10-17 09:15
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-10-17 09:15
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-10-17 09:15
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-10-17 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%5.5%2026-10-17 13:50
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-10-17 09:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-10-17 09:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-10-17 09:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%6.5%2026-10-17 03:49
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 65.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.13%6.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-17 05:00
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-17 05:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-17 05:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-17 05:00