The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 52.51%1.90fair odd
EV -0.761%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.855%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%52.46%52.44%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.781.801.8958.82%56.02%55.56%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 47.49%2.11fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.817%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%47.54%47.56%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.012.002.0751.81%49.73%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 52.51%; TPS (Visit): 47.49%. For HPK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.89, with an expected value of -0.761%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -0.761%E -0.403%K -0.855%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -8.34%E -4.32%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 13:10
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.86%E -1.55%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.01%E -2.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 12:55
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.44%E -2.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.96%E -3.01%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 12:54
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -4.96%E -2.74%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -5.96%E -3.01%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.49%E -3.05%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.01%E -2.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.49%E -3.05%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.01%E -2.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.49%E -3.05%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.01%E -2.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 19:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.49%E -3.05%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.39%E -3.79%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 06:30
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.06%E -3.99%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.01%E -2.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:00
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.11%E -4.64%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.69%E -0.817%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 06:45
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.11%E -4.64%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.69%E -0.817%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 06:45
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -8.11%E -4.64%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -1.69%E -0.817%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 06:45
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.74%E -6.32%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.64%E -1.29%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.74%E -6.32%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.64%E -1.29%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.80%10.1%2026-09-18 13:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%3.0%2026-09-18 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%3.0%2026-09-18 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%3.0%2026-09-18 12:49
Coolbet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.27%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.53%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-09-18 06:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%5.9%2026-09-18 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.5%2026-09-18 12:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.5%2026-09-18 12:49
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.5%2026-09-18 12:49
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.5%2026-09-18 12:49
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.77%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%6.6%2026-09-18 12:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.04%2.53I 39.53%NM 35.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%11.0%2026-09-18 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%11.1%2026-09-18 12:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%11.4%2026-09-18 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.63%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%12.2%2026-09-18 12:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.61%14.4%2026-09-18 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.37%2.30I 43.48%NM 35.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.65%20.8%2026-09-18 12:59