The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v TPS

2026-09-19 14:00 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 53.83%1.86fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.919%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%53.57%54.19%55.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.771.751.8958.48%56.66%56.98%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 46.17%2.17fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.558%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.42%46.43%45.81%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.062.062.1451.81%48.54%48.43%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: HPK (Local): 53.83%; TPS (Visit): 46.17%. For HPK (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.89, producing a positive expected value of +1.74%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV +1.74%E +0.919%K +1.95%G +0.034%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -10.89%E -5.64%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 20:00
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.66%E -3.83%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.66%E -3.83%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.66%E -3.83%K -7.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 19:05
NordicBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.72%E -2.67%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.04%E -1.45%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 00:59
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -5.26%E -2.99%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -3.50%E -1.68%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 19:00
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.80%E -3.31%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.96%E -1.91%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 01:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.34%E -3.64%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.35%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 19:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.34%E -3.64%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.35%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 19:20
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.95%E -4.65%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.19%E -0.558%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 21:44
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.95%E -4.65%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.19%E -0.558%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 21:42
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.95%E -4.65%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.19%E -0.558%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.93%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.74%3.5%2026-09-17 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.93%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.74%3.5%2026-09-17 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.93%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.74%3.5%2026-09-17 21:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.53%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%6.1%2026-09-17 18:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.00%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-17 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.00%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-17 21:50
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.00%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-17 21:45
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.00%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-17 21:50
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.17%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.32%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%6.3%2026-09-17 21:14
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%10.3%2026-09-17 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.37%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.78%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.85%10.9%2026-09-17 18:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.93%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%10.9%2026-09-17 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.13%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%12.2%2026-09-17 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.11%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.03%15.8%2026-09-17 18:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.59%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.95%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.46%20.2%2026-09-17 19:20
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.36%DraftKings 1.89 (53.1%) / BetRivers 2.14 (46.9%)Show all 3 combinations
HPK (Local)TPS (Visit)Margin
DraftKings🎯 1.89 (53.1%)BetRivers🎯 2.14 (46.9%)+0.362%
DraftKings🎯 1.89 (53.1%)betPARX🎯 2.14 (46.9%)+0.362%
DraftKings🎯 1.89 (53.1%)Bally Bet🎯 2.14 (46.9%)+0.362%