The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 30.52%3.28fair odd
EV -0.815%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.362%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.35%30.68%29.98%32.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.093.003.2535.09%32.37%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 69.48%1.44fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.941%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.38%69.32%70.02%70.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.371.351.4274.63%73.24%74.07%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 30.52%; Tappara (Visit): 69.48%. For HPK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -0.815%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.815%E -0.251%K -0.362%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 06:14
Bally Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.815%E -0.251%K -0.362%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 10:54
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.815%E -0.251%K -0.362%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 10:54
Pinnacle🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.45%EV -2.04%E -0.634%K -0.921%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.55%EV -6.89%E -5.15%K -20.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 13:40
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -2.34%E -0.732%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.81%E -3.51%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 12:59
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -2.34%E -0.732%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.81%E -3.51%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 13:00
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -8.44%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -1.34%E -0.941%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-04 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.44%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 08:00
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.44%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 08:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.44%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 08:00
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.44%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.20%E -4.59%K -17.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 08:00
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -1.34%E -0.941%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 12:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -13.02%E -4.57%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.12%E -2.98%K -10.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%6.3%2026-04-04 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%6.3%2026-04-04 13:40
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 32.70%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.30%8.5%2026-04-04 13:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%2.9%2026-04-04 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%2.9%2026-04-04 10:54
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%2.9%2026-04-04 10:55
Coolbet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.79%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.39%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%3.1%2026-04-04 09:29
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-04-04 10:54
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-04-04 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-04-04 10:54
Casumo🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-04-04 10:55
1xBet🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.24%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%6.3%2026-04-04 13:00
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%6.9%2026-04-04 12:59
LeoVegas🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%9.7%2026-04-04 10:54
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%10.5%2026-04-04 13:00
Everygame🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%11.1%2026-04-04 08:04
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%11.3%2026-04-04 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.57%12.1%2026-04-04 10:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.39%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.87%15.7%2026-04-04 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.83I 26.11%NM 22.34%1.56I 64.10%NM 54.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%16.9%2026-04-04 13:31