The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

HPK v Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 65.81%1.52fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.81%65.80%65.63%67.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.4871.43%69.08%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 34.19%2.93fair odd
EV -0.515%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.270%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.64%34.20%34.37%37.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.752.9140.00%36.73%36.36%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 65.81%; Pelicans (Visit): 34.19%. For Pelicans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.91, with an expected value of -0.515%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.60%E -1.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 11:15
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.60%E -1.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.40%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 10:40
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.60%E -1.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.40%E -3.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -2.60%E -1.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -14.53%E -5.81%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 06:29
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -2.60%E -1.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -14.53%E -5.81%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 06:30
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 11:15
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 11:15
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:20
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:20
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.23%E -3.63%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.69%E -2.85%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 11:20
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.89%E -4.12%K -13.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.857%E -0.296%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 14:05
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -7.20%E -5.11%K -17.57%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -0.515%E -0.177%K -0.270%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:30
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.86%E -5.62%K -19.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.99%E -2.18%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72%2.1%2026-03-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72%2.1%2026-03-14 14:50
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%8.1%2026-03-14 11:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%3.2%2026-03-14 09:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-03-14 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-03-14 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-03-14 14:25
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.38%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-03-14 14:35
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-03-14 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-03-14 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-03-14 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-03-14 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%8.8%2026-03-14 13:20
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.97%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%9.8%2026-03-14 14:25
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.09%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%10.1%2026-03-14 11:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%10.9%2026-03-14 13:15
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%11.2%2026-03-14 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.63%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.66%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.71%15.9%2026-03-14 13:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.48%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.60%16.7%2026-03-14 14:36