The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 46.41%2.15fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.47%46.47%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.012.042.1052.36%49.64%49.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 53.59%1.87fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%53.53%53.53%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.781.791.8059.88%56.25%55.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 46.41%; Pelicans (Visit): 53.59%. For HPK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.54%E -1.21%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.50%E -6.29%K -15.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 15:20
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.07%E -2.28%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-20 15:10
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.47%E -1.67%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.68%E -3.23%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 15:05
betPARX🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.93%E -1.90%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.68%E -3.23%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Bally Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.93%E -1.90%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.68%E -3.23%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 15:14
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.93%E -1.90%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.68%E -3.23%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 15:15
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-20 10:55
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.14%E -2.91%K -6.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 15:20
Betsson🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.32%E -2.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.61%E -2.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-19 07:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-19 07:55
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-19 07:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.14%E -2.91%K -6.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -11.36%E -5.95%K -12.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 05:59
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -11.36%E -5.95%K -12.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 06:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -11.36%E -5.95%K -12.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 06:05
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -11.36%E -5.95%K -12.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -3.54%E -1.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%8.1%2026-10-20 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 31.10%1.02I 98.04%NM 68.90%42.3%2026-10-20 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 32.27%1.01I 99.01%NM 67.73%46.2%2026-10-20 15:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%3.0%2026-10-20 09:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.79%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.55%3.1%2026-10-20 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.79%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.55%3.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.79%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.55%3.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%6.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%6.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%6.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%6.1%2026-10-20 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%6.2%2026-10-20 15:20
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.47%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.25%6.3%2026-10-20 15:25
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%7.5%2026-10-20 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%8.9%2026-10-20 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%10.9%2026-10-20 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.48%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%13.3%2026-10-20 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.43%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%16.2%2026-10-20 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.38%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.10%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.52%18.7%2026-10-20 15:19