The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 46.58%2.15fair odd
EV +0.143%
Edge +0.066%
Kelly +0.124%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%46.56%46.74%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.102.1550.00%48.23%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 53.42%1.87fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.44%53.26%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.751.761.8360.61%57.16%56.82%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 46.58%; Lukko (Visit): 53.42%. For HPK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.147. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.150, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.143%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +0.143%E +0.066%K +0.124%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-24 07:15
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +0.143%E +0.066%K +0.124%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-24 07:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +0.143%E +0.066%K +0.124%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-24 07:14
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +0.143%E +0.066%K +0.124%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-24 07:24
Betsson🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -0.789%E -0.370%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -5.98%E -3.40%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 08:19
NordicBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -0.789%E -0.370%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -5.98%E -3.40%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 08:19
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-24 14:15
Bally Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.05%E -4.05%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-24 12:54
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.19%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.05%E -4.05%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-24 12:54
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 14:29
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.98%E -2.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.37%E -2.44%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-24 16:15
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.24%E -1.22%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-24 16:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-24 09:19
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-24 10:44
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-24 09:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-24 09:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.44%E -3.08%K -7.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-24 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-03-24 14:29

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.39%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62%2.9%2026-03-23 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%3.6%2026-03-24 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%3.6%2026-03-24 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%3.6%2026-03-24 14:24
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.33%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.43%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.24%6.3%2026-03-24 16:25
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%6.6%2026-03-24 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%6.6%2026-03-24 14:24
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%6.6%2026-03-24 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%6.6%2026-03-24 14:25
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%9.6%2026-03-24 14:29
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%9.6%2026-03-24 14:24
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.98%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%11.2%2026-03-24 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%11.3%2026-03-24 14:30
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.26%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%11.4%2026-03-24 09:18
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.00%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.16%16.6%2026-03-24 14:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 34.63%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.35%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.01%16.9%2026-03-24 16:03