The School of Odds
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HPK v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 30.99%3.23fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.752%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.53%31.12%31.11%33.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.953.053.1539.22%33.85%32.79%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.495%
Kelly -0.907%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.36%45.18%44.77%47.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.082.102.2052.36%48.08%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.05%4.16fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +0.791%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.94%23.70%24.11%25.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.813.754.3029.85%26.26%26.67%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 30.99%; Kärpät (Visit): 44.96%; Draw: 24.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.40%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -3.92%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.64%EV -10.98%E -5.55%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV +3.40%E +0.791%K +1.03%G +0.035%6.0%2026-10-03 13:34
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -8.26%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.25%EV -6.48%E -3.12%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.454%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:33
Coolbet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.69%EV -5.16%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.07%EV -1.09%E -0.495%K -0.907%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -3.81%E -0.953%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-03 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -2.37%E -0.752%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42%EV -1.99%E -0.912%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%EV -6.22%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -2.37%E -0.752%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42%EV -1.99%E -0.912%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%EV -6.22%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -2.37%E -0.752%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42%EV -1.99%E -0.912%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%EV -6.22%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 10:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -16.32%E -6.04%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -7.42%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 09:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -8.57%E -2.90%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -7.83%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.62%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 10:24
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -9.82%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 10:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -9.82%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 10:05
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -9.82%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 10:05
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -5.47%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -9.82%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 10:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -14.77%E -5.37%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -5.58%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -9.82%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 09:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -7.02%E -2.34%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.39%EV -14.13%E -7.40%K -15.52%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.08%EV -11.51%E -3.13%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -19.42%E -7.47%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.16%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%EV -12.23%E -3.35%K -4.61%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-03 09:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -10.12%E -3.49%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.38%EV -10.08%E -5.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.01%EV -14.63%E -4.12%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 10:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 32.73%EV -20.97%E -8.22%K -13.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 42.36%EV -11.43%E -5.80%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.91%EV -19.44%E -5.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-03 09:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%4.0%2026-10-03 09:10
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%4.3%2026-10-03 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%4.3%2026-10-03 11:25
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%5.0%2026-10-03 11:40
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-03 10:04
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-03 10:05
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-03 10:05
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-10-03 09:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-10-03 09:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-10-03 09:05
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%5.4%2026-10-03 10:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%6.1%2026-10-03 09:05
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-10-03 05:25
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-03 05:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-03 05:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-03 05:40
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-03 05:50
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 44.77%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%8.4%2026-10-03 09:15