Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK v JYP

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

29%

48%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 28.90%3.46fair odd

EV +4.02%

Edge +1.12%

Kelly +1.55%

Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.86%28.91%28.70%30.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.293.353.6035.71%30.35%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JYP (Visit)

Prediction 48.08%2.08fair odd

EV -5.28%

Edge -2.68%

Kelly -5.44%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.22%48.22%48.34%50.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.781.901.901.9756.18%52.76%52.63%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.02%4.34fair odd

EV +0.155%

Edge +0.036%

Kelly +0.046%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.80%22.87%22.96%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.504.044.104.3528.57%24.75%24.39%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 28.90%; JYP (Visit): 48.08%; Draw: 23.02%. For HPK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.02%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV +4.02%E +1.12%K +1.55%G +0.062%	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -7.20%E -3.73%K -7.75%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -3.30%E -0.785%K -1.03%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-02 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV +4.02%E +1.12%K +1.55%G +0.062%	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -7.20%E -3.73%K -7.75%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -3.30%E -0.785%K -1.03%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-02 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV +4.02%E +1.12%K +1.55%G +0.062%	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -7.20%E -3.73%K -7.75%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -3.30%E -0.785%K -1.03%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-02 15:15
Coolbet🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV +2.58%E +0.726%K +1.01%G +0.026%	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.27%EV -5.28%E -2.68%K -5.44%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.39%EV -4.45%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-10-02 09:25
Casumo🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV +1.13%E +0.324%K +0.453%G +0.005%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -9.61%E -5.11%K -10.92%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.60%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-02 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV +1.13%E +0.324%K +0.453%G +0.005%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -9.61%E -5.11%K -10.92%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.60%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-02 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV +1.13%E +0.324%K +0.453%G +0.005%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -9.61%E -5.11%K -10.92%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.60%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-02 15:15
Grosvenor🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV +1.13%E +0.324%K +0.453%G +0.005%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -9.61%E -5.11%K -10.92%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.60%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-02 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -3.20%E -0.956%K -1.36%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.90%EV -8.65%E -4.55%K -9.61%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.80%EV +0.155%E +0.036%K +0.046%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-02 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 49.96%EV -14.42%E -8.10%K -18.48%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.10%EV -11.36%E -2.95%K -3.98%G +0.000%	12.5%	2026-10-02 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.54%E -2.35%K -3.43%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.65%E -4.55%K -9.61%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.90%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-10-02 15:20
1xBet🎯	3.19I 31.35%NM 29.53%EV -7.82%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.31%EV -6.24%E -3.20%K -6.57%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -2.15%E -0.505%K -0.661%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-02 13:10
Betway🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -13.31%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -6.24%E -3.20%K -6.57%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.90%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-10-02 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -13.31%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -7.69%E -4.00%K -8.35%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -7.90%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-10-02 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.97I 33.67%NM 29.79%EV -14.18%E -4.77%K -7.20%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 46.81%EV -9.13%E -4.83%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.78I 26.46%NM 23.40%EV -12.97%E -3.43%K -4.66%G +0.000%	13.0%	2026-10-02 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 30.31%EV -17.65%E -6.19%K -9.54%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 46.95%EV -11.53%E -6.27%K -13.73%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -12.51%E -3.29%K -4.47%G +0.000%	15.8%	2026-10-02 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 29.88%EV -19.09%E -6.82%K -10.61%G +0.000%	1.81I 55.25%NM 46.22%EV -12.97%E -7.17%K -16.02%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 23.90%EV -19.42%E -5.55%K -7.77%G +0.000%	19.5%	2026-10-02 15:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%	1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%	0.9%	2026-10-02 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%	1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%	0.9%	2026-10-02 15:20
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%	3.2%	2026-10-02 15:15
DraftKings🎯	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%	4.1%	2026-10-02 14:45
NordicBet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%	4.1%	2026-10-02 15:20
Bally Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%	4.9%	2026-10-02 15:15
BetRivers🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%	4.9%	2026-10-02 15:15
betPARX🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%	4.9%	2026-10-02 15:15
Pinnacle🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%	5.1%	2026-10-02 14:45
Betsson🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%	5.4%	2026-10-02 15:20
888sport🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	5.7%	2026-10-02 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	5.7%	2026-10-02 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	5.7%	2026-10-02 15:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%	6.4%	2026-10-02 15:19
Coral🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%	7.6%	2026-09-30 05:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%	7.6%	2026-09-30 05:29
Smarkets◎	2.26I 44.25%NM 40.99%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%	7.9%	2026-10-02 15:15
Paddy Power🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%	8.1%	2026-09-30 09:59