The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v JYP

2026-10-02 15:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 44.26%2.26fair odd
EV +1.80%
Edge +0.781%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%44.03%44.26%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.162.102.3047.62%46.30%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JYP (Visit)

Prediction 55.74%1.79fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.756%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%55.97%55.74%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.681.7761.73%59.27%59.52%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: HPK (Local): 44.26%; JYP (Visit): 55.74%. For HPK (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.30, producing a positive expected value of +1.80%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV +1.80%E +0.781%K +1.38%G +0.025%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -8.03%E -4.87%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-29 18:44
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -0.417%E -0.185%K -0.334%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.70%E -5.99%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-29 18:44
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -3.96%E -1.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -6.36%E -3.78%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 18:50
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.34%E -0.756%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-29 18:39
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.68%E -2.74%K -6.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-29 18:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.68%E -2.74%K -6.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-29 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-29 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%10.2%2026-09-29 18:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%5.8%2026-09-29 18:40
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.28%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.70%6.2%2026-09-29 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.36%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.49%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.15%11.0%2026-09-29 18:43
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.90%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%11.3%2026-09-29 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.87%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.63%19.4%2026-09-29 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.04%1.98I 50.51%NM 42.13%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.83%19.9%2026-09-29 18:40
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.02%NordicBet 2.30 (43.5%) / DraftKings 1.77 (56.5%)Show details
HPK (Local)JYP (Visit)Margin
NordicBet🎯 2.30 (43.5%)DraftKings🎯 1.77 (56.5%)+0.025%