The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 24.81%4.03fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.424%
Kelly +0.561%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%24.86%24.74%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.733.804.1030.77%26.79%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 51.99%1.92fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.40%51.90%52.23%53.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.761.8559.88%56.65%56.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV +2.06%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.07%23.24%23.03%23.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.094.104.4028.17%24.46%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 24.81%; Ilves (Visit): 51.99%; Draw: 23.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.06%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -0.743%E -0.186%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.65%EV -5.90%E -3.26%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07%EV +2.06%E +0.469%K +0.606%G +0.013%3.0%2026-10-16 09:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -0.743%E -0.186%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.65%EV -5.90%E -3.26%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07%EV +2.06%E +0.469%K +0.606%G +0.013%3.0%2026-10-16 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -0.743%E -0.186%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.65%EV -5.90%E -3.26%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07%EV +2.06%E +0.469%K +0.606%G +0.013%3.0%2026-10-16 09:54
1xBet🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.29%EV -7.69%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.57%EV -6.94%E -3.88%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -1.42%E -0.334%K -0.436%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.47%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -8.50%E -4.83%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.42%E -0.334%K -0.436%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 09:55
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.47%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -8.50%E -4.83%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.42%E -0.334%K -0.436%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 09:54
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.47%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -8.50%E -4.83%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.42%E -0.334%K -0.436%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.47%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -8.50%E -4.83%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -1.42%E -0.334%K -0.436%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 09:55
Coolbet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV +1.74%E +0.424%K +0.561%G +0.010%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -3.82%E -2.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-16 09:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.71%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -6.42%E -3.57%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 09:39
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.71%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -9.02%E -5.15%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-16 09:40
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -13.15%E -3.76%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.42%E -3.57%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 09:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -13.15%E -3.76%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -9.54%E -5.48%K -12.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-16 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.09%EV -18.11%E -5.49%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.25%EV -12.66%E -7.53%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.66%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-16 09:34
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -10.67%E -2.96%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -10.06%E -5.81%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -13.02%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-16 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 25.38%EV -13.65%E -3.92%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.06%EV -10.06%E -5.81%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -13.02%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 15:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 25.90%EV -19.35%E -5.96%K -8.60%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 50.40%EV -13.18%E -7.89%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.71%EV -17.65%E -4.97%K -6.92%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-16 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%3.7%2026-10-16 09:35
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%4.2%2026-10-16 09:39
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%4.2%2026-10-16 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%5.3%2026-10-16 09:40
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%5.5%2026-10-16 10:05
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-10-16 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-10-16 09:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-10-16 09:35
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-10-16 09:54
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-10-16 09:55
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-10-16 09:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%6.0%2026-10-16 09:35
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%7.1%2026-10-16 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%7.7%2026-10-16 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%7.7%2026-10-16 15:25
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 09:39
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 09:40