The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 49.28%2.03fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%49.19%49.61%50.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.941.912.0053.48%51.62%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 50.72%1.97fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.48%50.81%50.39%52.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.861.871.9355.25%53.66%53.62%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 49.28%; HIFK (Visit): 50.72%. For HPK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -1.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -1.45%E -0.723%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -8.19%E -4.53%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 22:40
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -1.45%E -0.723%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -8.19%E -4.53%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 22:44
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -1.45%E -0.723%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -8.19%E -4.53%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 09:19
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -2.43%E -1.23%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.66%E -3.04%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -2.43%E -1.23%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -7.68%E -4.22%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 13:45
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.40%E -2.27%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.64%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 13:55
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.88%E -3.08%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.12%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 21:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.88%E -3.08%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.12%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.88%E -3.08%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.12%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.88%E -3.08%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.12%E -1.63%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 21:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.88%E -3.08%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.18%E -3.92%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 05:04
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.88%E -3.08%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.18%E -3.92%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 05:05
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.87%E -3.63%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.11%E -1.09%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.85%E -4.20%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.15%E -2.75%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%4.8%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%4.8%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.27%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%8.1%2026-10-24 13:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-10-24 06:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%3.2%2026-10-24 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%3.2%2026-10-24 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%3.2%2026-10-24 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%5.6%2026-10-24 12:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-24 12:35
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-24 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-24 12:35
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-24 12:35
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.79%6.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%8.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%8.6%2026-10-24 12:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%10.5%2026-10-24 12:35
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%11.5%2026-10-24 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.61%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.25%13.1%2026-10-24 13:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.41%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.01%15.7%2026-10-24 12:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.19%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.79%16.9%2026-10-24 13:55