The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 42.85%2.33fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%42.82%42.93%43.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.122.2250.00%47.01%47.17%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 32.91%3.04fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.647%
Kelly +0.955%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.34%32.94%32.85%34.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.832.843.1038.46%35.38%35.15%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.24%4.13fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -0.759%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.48%24.24%24.22%24.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.833.904.0028.99%26.08%25.64%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 42.85%; Ässät (Visit): 32.91%; Draw: 24.24%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.01%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.76%EV -4.87%E -2.19%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV +2.01%E +0.647%K +0.955%G +0.019%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.91%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-26 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.80%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -1.28%E -0.428%K -0.642%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.80%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -1.28%E -0.428%K -0.642%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.80%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -1.28%E -0.428%K -0.642%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.96%EV -9.15%E -4.32%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -4.57%E -1.58%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 09:49
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.96%EV -9.15%E -4.32%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -4.57%E -1.58%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 09:50
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.96%EV -9.15%E -4.32%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -4.57%E -1.58%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 09:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.96%EV -9.15%E -4.32%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -4.57%E -1.58%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -5.23%E -1.82%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 13:34
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.98%EV -6.15%E -2.81%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.49%EV -7.54%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-26 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.01%E -4.77%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.51%E -3.46%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 13:35
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.01%E -4.77%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.51%E -3.46%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.71%EV -13.44%E -6.65%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.10%EV -9.51%E -3.46%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-26 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.01%E -4.77%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.48%EV -11.16%E -4.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 13:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.57%EV -10.86%E -5.22%K -10.06%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.04%EV -11.81%E -4.41%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.39%EV -12.00%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-26 13:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.77%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -12.80%E -4.83%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.16%EV -14.29%E -7.15%K -14.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -14.45%E -5.56%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%EV -11.52%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-26 13:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.57%EV -14.29%E -7.15%K -14.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.75%EV -14.45%E -5.56%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.68%EV -16.37%E -4.74%K -6.68%G +0.000%17.4%2026-09-26 13:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%4.0%2026-09-26 13:35
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%4.1%2026-09-26 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-09-26 13:49
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%4.6%2026-09-26 13:50
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-09-26 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-09-26 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-09-26 13:35
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-09-25 19:14
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-09-26 13:40
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-09-25 19:14
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-09-25 19:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-09-26 13:34
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-09-25 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-09-25 19:14
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-09-25 19:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-09-25 19:14
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-09-26 13:35