The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HIFK v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HIFK (Local)

Prediction 43.09%2.32fair odd
EV -0.900%
Edge -0.391%
Kelly -0.692%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%43.06%43.10%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.202.202.3046.51%45.41%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 56.91%1.76fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%56.94%56.90%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.681.7062.50%60.39%59.52%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HIFK (Local): 43.09%; TPS (Visit): 56.91%. For HIFK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.900%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.900%E -0.391%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 13:29
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.82%E -2.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-14 13:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-14 13:30
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.48%E -1.56%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.39%E -2.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-14 13:29
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.39%E -2.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 12:30
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.39%E -2.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 12:29
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.39%E -2.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 12:30
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.39%E -2.61%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 14:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.80%E -4.82%K -12.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-14 13:30
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 12:34
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 12:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.94%E -5.59%K -14.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.25%E -1.91%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 15:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.25%E -1.91%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 15:25
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.25%E -1.91%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 15:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.96%E -2.97%K -7.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-14 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%7.6%2026-10-14 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%7.6%2026-10-14 15:25
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%8.5%2026-10-14 13:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.0%2026-10-14 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.63%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.12%3.7%2026-10-14 12:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.63%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.12%3.7%2026-10-14 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.63%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.12%3.7%2026-10-14 12:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%6.0%2026-10-14 13:29
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.59%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%6.2%2026-10-14 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%6.7%2026-10-14 12:30
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%6.7%2026-10-14 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%6.7%2026-10-14 12:29
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%6.7%2026-10-14 12:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%8.5%2026-10-14 15:24
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%9.4%2026-10-14 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%11.0%2026-10-14 13:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.54%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%13.2%2026-10-14 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.59%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.38%15.6%2026-10-14 13:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.25%1.93I 51.81%NM 43.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.30%19.3%2026-10-14 15:25