The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HIFK v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HIFK (Local)

Prediction 53.03%1.89fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.670%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.63%53.03%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.781.9159.88%56.61%56.18%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 46.97%2.13fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.645%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%47.37%46.97%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.022.1052.36%49.42%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HIFK (Local): 53.03%; Lukko (Visit): 46.97%. For HIFK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.28%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +1.28%E +0.670%K +1.41%G +0.018%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 23:25
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-18 12:40
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.08%E -2.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 15:25
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.08%E -2.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 15:25
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.08%E -2.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 15:24
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 12:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.14%E -3.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 23:15
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.14%E -3.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 23:14
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -6.67%E -3.79%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 08:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.86%E -5.80%K -14.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:34
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.86%E -5.80%K -14.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.86%E -5.80%K -14.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:35
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.86%E -5.80%K -14.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:34
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.45%E -6.85%K -17.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -1.35%E -0.645%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 04:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%10.1%2026-09-18 05:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%2.8%2026-09-18 12:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%2.8%2026-09-18 12:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%2.8%2026-09-18 12:30
Coolbet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.87%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%2.9%2026-09-18 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.52%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%6.1%2026-09-18 05:00
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.98%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%6.3%2026-09-18 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-18 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-18 12:29
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-18 12:30
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-18 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%8.5%2026-09-18 09:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%10.6%2026-09-18 12:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.40%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.88%10.8%2026-09-18 04:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.32%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%11.0%2026-09-18 04:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.76%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%12.5%2026-09-18 12:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.40%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.78%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.82%15.0%2026-09-18 12:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.42%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.33%20.7%2026-09-18 05:00