The School of Odds
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HIFK v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HIFK (Local)

Prediction 52.23%1.91fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.684%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%52.44%52.43%55.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.811.801.8958.14%55.18%55.56%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 47.77%2.09fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.604%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.79%47.56%47.57%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.952.1252.36%50.79%51.28%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HIFK (Local): 52.23%; Kärpät (Visit): 47.77%. For Kärpät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.28%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -10.17%E -5.91%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV +1.28%E +0.604%K +1.14%G +0.015%5.3%2026-09-23 15:25
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -6.52%E -3.64%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -2.54%E -1.25%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-23 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.90%E -2.12%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -4.45%E -2.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-23 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.43%E -2.42%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.45%E -2.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 09:10
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.45%E -2.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 21:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.45%E -2.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 20:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.45%E -2.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 20:59
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.65%E -5.58%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.45%E -2.23%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 10:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.84%E -3.51%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-23 10:15
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -1.29%E -0.684%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -7.80%E -4.04%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-23 11:09
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -2.34%E -1.25%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -7.80%E -4.04%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 09:24
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -2.34%E -1.25%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -7.80%E -4.04%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 09:25
Bally Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -2.34%E -1.25%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -7.80%E -4.04%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 09:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.75%E -4.58%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 21:00
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.75%E -4.58%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 20:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.75%E -4.58%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 21:00
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.99%E -3.33%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.75%E -4.58%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22%1.7%2026-09-23 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22%1.7%2026-09-23 15:25
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-09-23 12:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.11%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.22%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%3.0%2026-09-23 15:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%3.5%2026-09-23 09:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%3.5%2026-09-23 09:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%3.5%2026-09-23 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%5.4%2026-09-23 10:15
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-09-23 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%6.8%2026-09-23 09:24
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%6.8%2026-09-23 09:24
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%6.8%2026-09-23 09:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%6.8%2026-09-23 09:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%8.5%2026-09-22 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%8.9%2026-09-23 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%11.3%2026-09-23 10:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.31%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.34%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.35%12.5%2026-09-23 09:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.19%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%13.1%2026-09-23 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.31%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%15.4%2026-09-23 10:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.81%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.77%16.8%2026-09-23 15:15