The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HIFK v Jokerit

2026-11-11 16:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HIFK (Local)

Prediction 44.49%2.25fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%44.49%44.50%46.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.042.022.2053.19%49.14%49.38%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jokerit (Visit)

Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV -0.905%
Edge -0.297%
Kelly -0.441%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.53%32.49%32.80%33.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.872.953.0540.00%34.79%33.96%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.01%4.35fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.288%
Kelly +0.372%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.89%23.01%22.70%23.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.144.224.4027.78%24.15%23.67%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: HIFK (Local): 44.49%; Jokerit (Visit): 32.49%; Draw: 23.01%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.40, producing a positive expected value of +1.27%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.17%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -0.905%E -0.297%K -0.441%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV +1.27%E +0.288%K +0.372%G +0.005%3.1%2026-11-05 10:17
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.17%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -0.905%E -0.297%K -0.441%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV +1.27%E +0.288%K +0.372%G +0.005%3.1%2026-11-05 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.17%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -0.905%E -0.297%K -0.441%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV +1.27%E +0.288%K +0.372%G +0.005%3.1%2026-11-05 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -2.19%E -0.514%K -0.673%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-05 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.30%EV -10.12%E -5.01%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.70%EV -4.15%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -2.19%E -0.514%K -0.673%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-05 10:17
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.30%EV -10.12%E -5.01%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.70%EV -4.15%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -2.19%E -0.514%K -0.673%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-05 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.30%EV -10.12%E -5.01%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.70%EV -4.15%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -2.19%E -0.514%K -0.673%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-05 10:20
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.52%EV -7.90%E -3.81%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.05%EV -4.48%E -1.52%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.34%E -0.795%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-05 12:10
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.56%EV -14.12%E -7.32%K -15.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -5.64%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-05 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.87%EV -11.01%E -5.51%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -12.28%E -4.55%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.89%EV -5.64%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-05 10:19
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.11%E -0.960%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85%EV -0.905%E -0.297%K -0.441%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.99%EV -6.79%E -1.68%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.9%2026-11-05 10:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.48%EV -9.68%E -4.77%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.83%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.69%EV -8.40%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-05 10:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 44.38%EV -16.35%E -8.70%K -18.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.37%EV -18.77%E -7.51%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -13.69%E -3.65%K -4.98%G +0.000%19.9%2026-11-05 10:17
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 44.00%EV -15.46%E -8.14%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.78%EV -17.15%E -6.73%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.22%EV -17.15%E -4.76%K -6.59%G +0.000%19.6%2026-11-05 10:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%4.0%2026-11-05 10:19
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-11-05 10:20
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%5.4%2026-11-05 10:17
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%5.4%2026-11-05 10:20
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%5.4%2026-11-05 10:19
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%5.7%2026-11-05 10:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%6.4%2026-11-05 10:17
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-11-05 10:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-11-05 10:17
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-11-05 10:17