The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HIFK v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HIFK (Local)

Prediction 49.08%2.04fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%48.86%49.08%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.951.952.0052.36%51.33%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 50.92%1.96fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%51.14%50.92%52.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.831.831.8957.14%54.79%54.64%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HIFK (Local): 49.08%; Ilves (Visit): 50.92%. For HIFK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -1.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.84%E -0.918%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.35%E -4.64%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.84%E -0.918%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.35%E -4.64%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.84%E -0.918%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.35%E -4.64%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.80%E -1.94%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.29%E -2.85%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-28 16:00
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -4.29%E -2.20%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -3.77%E -1.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-28 16:25
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.29%E -2.20%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.78%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-28 10:35
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -4.29%E -2.20%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.89%E -6.22%K -14.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-26 17:40
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -4.29%E -2.20%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.89%E -6.22%K -14.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-26 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -4.29%E -2.20%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.89%E -6.22%K -14.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-26 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -4.29%E -2.20%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.89%E -6.22%K -14.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-26 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.27%E -2.73%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.77%E -1.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-28 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.73%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.78%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.73%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.78%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 14:29
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.27%E -2.73%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.78%E -2.56%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 14:30
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.76%E -3.00%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.27%E -2.27%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 16:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.25%E -3.27%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.82%E -3.73%K -8.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 10:40
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.25%E -3.27%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.35%E -4.64%K -10.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-28 10:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 49.46%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%8.7%2026-10-28 10:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 49.59%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.41%9.6%2026-10-28 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 49.59%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.41%9.6%2026-10-28 16:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.11%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.66%2.6%2026-10-28 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.11%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.66%2.6%2026-10-28 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.11%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.66%2.6%2026-10-28 14:45
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.01%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.37%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%2.8%2026-10-28 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%5.7%2026-10-28 10:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%6.3%2026-10-28 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%6.3%2026-10-28 14:30
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%6.3%2026-10-28 14:30
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.19%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.65%6.8%2026-10-28 16:25
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%8.3%2026-10-28 10:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.20%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%8.3%2026-10-28 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.18%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%11.4%2026-10-28 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%11.5%2026-10-28 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.58%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.99%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.44%13.0%2026-10-28 16:08
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.25%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.80%16.7%2026-10-28 10:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 37.18%2.15I 46.51%NM 38.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.78%22.3%2026-10-28 16:19