The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ässät v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät (Local)

Prediction 52.26%1.91fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%52.05%52.36%52.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.831.831.8955.56%54.76%54.64%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.26%47.95%47.64%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.972.002.0252.36%50.84%50.13%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ässät (Local): 52.26%; SaiPa (Visit): 47.74%. For Ässät (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.89, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -1.23%E -0.650%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -7.86%E -4.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-25 10:24
NordicBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -2.80%E -1.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -5.00%E -2.51%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 13:10
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.32%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-25 13:10
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-25 10:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-25 10:40
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 06:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 06:30
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 06:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.36%E -2.38%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 06:30
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.41%E -2.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.57%E -1.77%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-25 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.41%E -2.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 15:25
Bally Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.41%E -2.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 15:24
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.41%E -2.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 15:24
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.30%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 05:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.30%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 05:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.93%E -3.30%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 05:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-09-25 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 56.28%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.72%11.0%2026-09-25 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 56.28%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.72%11.0%2026-09-25 15:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.00%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.09%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.91%2.9%2026-09-25 09:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%3.7%2026-09-25 15:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%3.7%2026-09-25 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.11%3.7%2026-09-25 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-25 10:40
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.27%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%6.6%2026-09-25 15:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.27%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%6.6%2026-09-25 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.27%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%6.6%2026-09-25 15:24
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.27%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%6.6%2026-09-25 15:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.43%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%8.5%2026-09-25 14:45
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%10.1%2026-09-25 10:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.80%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%10.9%2026-09-25 10:39
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%11.8%2026-09-25 10:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%12.5%2026-09-25 15:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.27%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.21%13.2%2026-09-25 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.94%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.54%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.52%16.5%2026-09-25 10:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.50%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%16.6%2026-09-25 10:40