The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ässät v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät (Local)

Prediction 42.93%2.33fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.09%42.92%42.88%43.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.212.202.2745.45%45.17%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 57.07%1.75fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.27%57.08%57.12%57.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.661.671.7162.11%60.32%60.06%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ässät (Local): 42.93%; SaiPa (Visit): 57.07%. For SaiPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.71, with an expected value of -2.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -2.55%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 13:00
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.41%E -1.51%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.55%E -2.10%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 06:54
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.83%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-06 04:35
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.26%E -1.91%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 11:00
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.26%E -1.91%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.27%E -3.17%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 11:00
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.26%E -1.91%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.27%E -3.17%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 11:00
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.41%E -1.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 13:00
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.41%E -1.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-05 12:59
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 06:55
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 07:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 06:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 06:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-06 06:55
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 05:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 05:54
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 08:44
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 05:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.55%E -2.52%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-05 05:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%3.7%2026-04-06 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%3.7%2026-04-06 13:30
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%7.6%2026-04-06 10:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%3.0%2026-04-05 07:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%3.0%2026-04-06 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%3.0%2026-04-06 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%3.0%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.89%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%4.4%2026-04-06 06:54
1xBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.71%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.69%6.2%2026-04-06 12:59
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%6.4%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%6.4%2026-04-06 11:00
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%6.4%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%6.4%2026-04-06 11:00
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%8.8%2026-04-06 06:55
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.87%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%9.6%2026-04-06 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39%11.1%2026-04-06 06:55
Everygame🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%11.3%2026-04-06 12:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.52%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.82%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%13.0%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.26%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.31%14.3%2026-04-06 06:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 31.24%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%15.2%2026-04-06 06:56
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.76%15.3%2026-04-06 06:54