Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät v Lukko

2026-10-02 16:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

38%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät (Local)

Prediction 38.40%2.60fair odd

EV -5.91%

Edge -2.41%

Kelly -4.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.96%38.40%38.40%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.322.352.4546.51%43.02%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 38.40%2.60fair odd

EV -5.91%

Edge -2.41%

Kelly -4.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.96%38.40%38.40%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.322.352.4546.51%43.02%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.19%4.31fair odd

EV -4.91%

Edge -1.20%

Kelly -1.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.33%23.19%23.19%24.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.553.843.854.1028.17%26.02%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ässät (Local): 38.40%; Lukko (Visit): 38.40%; Draw: 23.19%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.10, with an expected value of -4.91%; they do not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.08%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.08%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -4.91%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-28 06:05
1xBet🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.43%EV -6.30%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.43%EV -6.30%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -6.06%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-28 06:08
Paddy Power🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 37.96%EV -8.60%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 37.96%EV -8.60%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -13.02%E -3.47%K -4.74%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-09-28 06:04
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.31%EV -9.75%E -4.15%K -7.22%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.31%EV -9.75%E -4.15%K -7.22%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -10.70%E -2.78%K -3.76%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-09-28 06:06
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -11.67%E -5.08%K -8.98%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -11.67%E -5.08%K -8.98%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-09-28 06:05
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 38.17%EV -15.51%E -7.05%K -12.93%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 38.17%EV -15.51%E -7.05%K -12.93%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 23.66%EV -17.66%E -4.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%	19.1%	2026-09-28 06:05
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 38.50%EV -17.43%E -8.11%K -15.16%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 38.50%EV -17.43%E -8.11%K -15.16%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 22.99%EV -16.50%E -4.58%K -6.35%G +0.000%	20.8%	2026-09-28 06:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%	7.0%	2026-09-28 06:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%	7.0%	2026-09-28 06:20