Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

29%

47%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät (Local)

Prediction 28.81%3.47fair odd

EV -2.03%

Edge -0.598%

Kelly -0.847%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.83%28.73%28.75%30.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.133.103.4035.71%31.94%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 47.30%2.11fair odd

EV -2.57%

Edge -1.25%

Kelly -2.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.20%47.37%47.50%50.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.962.002.0655.56%51.07%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.89%4.19fair odd

EV +1.54%

Edge +0.361%

Kelly +0.473%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.13%23.90%23.75%24.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.453.994.004.2528.99%25.06%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ässät (Local): 28.81%; Lukko (Visit): 47.30%; Draw: 23.89%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -7.80%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.98%EV -2.57%E -1.25%K -2.43%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.77%EV +1.54%E +0.361%K +0.473%G +0.007%	3.3%	2026-10-03 09:45
Svenska Spel🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -7.80%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.98%EV -2.57%E -1.25%K -2.43%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.77%EV +1.54%E +0.361%K +0.473%G +0.007%	3.3%	2026-10-03 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -7.80%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.98%EV -2.57%E -1.25%K -2.43%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.77%EV +1.54%E +0.361%K +0.473%G +0.007%	3.3%	2026-10-03 09:45
1xBet🎯	3.38I 29.59%NM 27.83%EV -2.61%E -0.772%K -1.10%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%EV -11.08%E -5.90%K -12.60%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.54%E +0.361%K +0.473%G +0.007%	6.3%	2026-10-03 13:49
Casumo🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -10.68%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.05%E -0.499%K -0.661%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-10-03 09:41
Unibet (SE)🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -10.68%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.05%E -0.499%K -0.661%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-10-03 09:40
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -10.68%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.05%E -0.499%K -0.661%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-10-03 09:40
Grosvenor🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -10.68%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.05%E -0.499%K -0.661%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-10-03 09:40
Coolbet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -2.03%E -0.598%K -0.847%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%EV -3.04%E -1.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -4.44%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-10-03 03:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.35%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.27%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -4.44%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-02 20:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -12.12%E -3.97%K -5.91%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 47.27%EV -9.19%E -4.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -5.63%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-10-02 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -10.14%E -5.34%K -11.27%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -6.83%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-03 07:55
PMU (FR)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -15.00%E -5.08%K -7.69%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 47.18%EV -11.08%E -5.90%K -12.60%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -6.83%E -1.75%K -2.35%G +0.000%	12.7%	2026-10-03 09:40
Betway🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.80%E -2.44%K -3.54%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.77%E -3.99%K -8.18%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -10.41%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-10-02 22:14
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -13.56%E -4.52%K -6.78%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 46.86%EV -10.61%E -5.61%K -11.92%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -10.41%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000%	12.9%	2026-10-03 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -16.44%E -5.67%K -8.65%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 47.06%EV -12.98%E -7.05%K -15.45%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.09%EV -10.41%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000%	15.5%	2026-10-02 20:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 29.70%EV -19.32%E -6.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 46.20%EV -14.87%E -8.26%K -18.59%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 24.10%EV -17.58%E -5.09%K -7.17%G +0.000%	20.3%	2026-10-02 20:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
NordicBet🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%	4.2%	2026-10-03 13:50
DraftKings🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%	4.5%	2026-10-03 13:44
Pinnacle🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%	5.2%	2026-10-03 13:55
BetRivers🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	5.2%	2026-10-03 09:40
betPARX🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	5.2%	2026-10-03 09:40
Bally Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	5.2%	2026-10-03 09:38
Betsson🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%	5.3%	2026-10-03 13:50
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%	5.4%	2026-10-02 20:30
888sport🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	5.7%	2026-10-02 20:30
888sport (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	5.7%	2026-10-02 20:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	5.7%	2026-10-02 20:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%	6.4%	2026-10-02 20:40
Paddy Power🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%	8.1%	2026-10-02 20:38
Smarkets◎	2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.16%	8.4%	2026-10-03 02:10
Neds🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%	8.8%	2026-10-03 05:50
Coral🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%	8.8%	2026-10-03 05:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%	8.8%	2026-10-03 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%	8.8%	2026-10-03 05:35