The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ässät v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät (Local)

Prediction 52.70%1.90fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%52.63%52.84%53.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.791.791.8557.14%55.90%55.87%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 47.30%2.11fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.72%47.37%47.16%48.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.951.991.992.0551.28%50.33%50.25%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ässät (Local): 52.70%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 47.30%. For Ässät (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -2.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.50%E -1.35%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.36%E -3.21%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 13:55
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.08%E -2.24%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -6.83%E -3.47%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 15:30
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.08%E -2.24%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -6.83%E -3.47%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 15:30
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.08%E -2.24%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -6.83%E -3.47%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -4.60%E -2.54%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.04%E -1.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-18 08:40
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.13%E -2.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.13%E -2.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.13%E -2.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 13:45
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -6.19%E -3.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -3.99%E -1.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 13:50
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.19%E -3.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.46%E -2.21%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 08:40
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.71%E -3.79%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.71%E -3.79%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.41%E -2.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:50
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.77%E -4.44%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.77%E -3.99%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 04:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.77%E -4.44%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.77%E -3.99%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 04:15
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.77%E -4.44%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.77%E -3.99%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 04:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.77%E -4.44%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.77%E -3.99%K -8.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 04:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 53.02%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.98%10.3%2026-09-18 13:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.90%3.0%2026-09-17 09:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%3.5%2026-09-18 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%3.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%3.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%5.5%2026-09-18 13:49
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-18 15:30
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-18 15:30
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.10%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.14%6.7%2026-09-18 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%8.5%2026-09-18 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%10.6%2026-09-18 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.11%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.87%10.8%2026-09-18 13:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.76%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%11.4%2026-09-18 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%12.2%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.27%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.66%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%15.4%2026-09-18 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.42%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.33%20.7%2026-09-18 13:50