Language:English
Ässät v KalPa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ässät (Local)
Prediction 47.16%2.12fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.22%47.42%47.16%48.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.971.972.0554.05%50.86%50.76%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
KalPa (Visit)
Prediction 30.20%3.31fair odd
EV +7.20%
Edge +2.03%
Kelly +2.82%
Growth +0.203%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%29.66%30.20%30.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.063.103.5535.71%32.63%32.26%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.65%4.42fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.443%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%22.92%22.65%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.684.094.184.3527.17%24.45%23.95%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ässät (Local): 47.16%; KalPa (Visit): 30.20%; Draw: 22.65%. For KalPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.20%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.22%EV -4.75%E -2.35%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.44%EV +7.20%E +2.03%K +2.82%G +0.203% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.35%EV -9.41%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-05 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.35%EV -3.33%E -1.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%EV -1.48%E -0.341%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.35%EV -3.33%E -1.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%EV -1.48%E -0.341%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.35%EV -3.33%E -1.62%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%EV -1.48%E -0.341%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.75%E -2.35%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.22%EV -4.88%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.10%EV -5.69%E -2.84%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.19%EV -5.79%E -1.85%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.70%EV -6.01%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -7.10%E -3.61%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -7.10%E -3.61%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -7.10%E -3.61%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -7.10%E -3.61%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.99%E -4.66%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.88%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-05 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.30%EV -8.99%E -4.66%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.05%E -4.13%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.41%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.19%EV -9.46%E -4.93%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.71%EV -10.92%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -5.69%E -2.84%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -10.92%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -15.07%E -4.02%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-05 14:09 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.28%EV -11.35%E -6.04%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.53%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.20%EV -15.07%E -4.02%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-05 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.57%EV -12.29%E -6.61%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.93%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.50%EV -12.81%E -3.33%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.22%EV -12.76%E -6.90%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 23.24%EV -16.66%E -4.53%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-03-05 16:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25% | 3.2% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 14:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 14:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 14:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 10:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 10:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 16:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 16:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75% | 5.7% | 2026-03-05 11:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 14:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 14:52 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 17:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 17:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 17:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 17:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10% | 8.1% | 2026-03-05 10:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58% | 8.3% | 2026-03-05 14:40 |