The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ässät v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ässät (Local)

Prediction 31.64%3.16fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.908%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%31.63%31.64%32.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.902.953.1037.74%34.46%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 44.13%2.27fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.54%44.15%44.20%45.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.082.102.1751.02%47.99%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.23%4.13fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.420%
Kelly +0.551%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.96%24.22%24.17%24.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.964.004.2027.40%25.28%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ässät (Local): 31.64%; Ilves (Visit): 44.13%; Draw: 24.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.76%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.29%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV +1.76%E +0.420%K +0.551%G +0.010%3.2%2026-09-04 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.29%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV +1.76%E +0.420%K +0.551%G +0.010%3.2%2026-09-04 11:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.29%EV -5.07%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%EV +1.76%E +0.420%K +0.551%G +0.010%3.2%2026-09-04 11:25
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -0.659%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:25
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -0.659%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -0.659%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -0.659%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:25
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -6.97%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.03%EV -7.77%E -3.72%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -0.659%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 11:20
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.22%EV -1.91%E -0.615%K -0.908%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.59%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.19%EV -3.08%E -0.770%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 20:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.09%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.24%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -3.08%E -0.770%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 22:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.07%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -5.50%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 22:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.15%EV -12.98%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.88%EV -13.07%E -6.63%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -6.72%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.65%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -9.54%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 16:15
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.14%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 22:15
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -9.14%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-03 22:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.54%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.59%EV -16.15%E -6.09%K -9.79%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.07%EV -13.51%E -6.89%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-03 22:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -8.66%E -4.18%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -11.56%E -3.17%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 11:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%3.9%2026-09-04 09:04
NordicBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%4.1%2026-09-04 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%4.1%2026-09-04 05:05
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%4.9%2026-09-04 12:30
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%5.1%2026-09-04 11:25
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%5.1%2026-09-04 11:25
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%5.1%2026-09-04 11:25
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-09-04 14:35
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-09-03 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-09-03 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-09-03 19:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%6.4%2026-09-03 16:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-09-02 06:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-09-02 06:30
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-09-04 04:05