The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

W-B/Scranton Penguins v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 22:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 49.61%2.02fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.74%49.61%49.49%51.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.861.881.9357.47%53.73%53.19%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 27.78%3.60fair odd
EV +0.002%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.93%27.78%27.87%29.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.233.203.6032.79%31.00%31.25%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.61%4.42fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.61%22.64%22.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.114.134.2025.64%24.33%24.18%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 49.61%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 27.78%; Draw: 22.61%. For Toronto Marlies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.5999. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.6000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.002%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV +0.002%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.28%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-07 21:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.28%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-07 21:49
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.79%EV -4.26%E -2.21%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.62%EV -8.61%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.58%EV -5.70%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-07 14:39
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -9.22%E -5.04%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.54%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-07 21:49
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:48
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.25%E -2.75%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.02%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%EV -10.71%E -5.95%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -7.28%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-07 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.55%EV -10.71%E -5.95%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -10.67%E -2.70%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-07 21:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.42%EV -11.20%E -6.26%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.90%EV -11.94%E -3.77%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -11.80%E -3.03%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-07 21:49
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.83%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -7.28%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-07 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.73%EV -13.68%E -7.86%K -18.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.37%EV -15.28%E -5.01%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.90%EV -10.67%E -2.70%K -3.62%G +0.000%15.6%2026-06-07 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%2.0%2026-06-07 22:00
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-06-07 21:49
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-06-07 22:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-06-07 21:49
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-06-07 14:49
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-06-07 15:19
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%8.2%2026-06-07 22:00
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%8.8%2026-06-07 14:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%9.2%2026-06-07 21:49