The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 53.54%1.87fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.25%53.54%53.79%54.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.751.8261.73%57.62%57.14%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 24.84%4.03fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.45%24.84%24.82%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.623.653.8328.99%27.59%27.40%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.62%4.63fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.07%21.62%21.39%22.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.184.204.4425.64%23.94%23.81%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 53.54%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 24.84%; Draw: 21.62%. For W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.82, with an expected value of -2.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -2.56%E -1.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.96%EV -14.05%E -4.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 21.79%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 20:59
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.70%E -2.64%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 17:20
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45%EV -7.91%E -4.60%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.45%EV -4.86%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.09%EV -4.01%E -0.902%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 23:04
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.23%EV -7.91%E -4.60%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -11.81%E -3.33%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -13.52%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-12 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -8.45%E -4.94%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.85%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-12 23:05
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.59%EV -8.45%E -4.94%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.33%E -2.56%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -7.03%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-12 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.57%EV -10.05%E -5.99%K -14.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.57%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -9.20%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-12 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.00%EV -10.59%E -6.34%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -10.57%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.41%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-12 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.82%EV -11.13%E -6.70%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -11.81%E -3.33%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.48%EV -15.68%E -4.02%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-12 22:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.20%EV -13.27%E -8.19%K -21.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.98%EV -14.30%E -4.14%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.82%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-12 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-05-12 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%5.3%2026-05-12 23:04
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-05-12 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-05-12 19:15
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%7.7%2026-05-12 17:20
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%7.7%2026-05-12 17:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-05-12 23:05
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%8.1%2026-05-12 22:55
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%8.2%2026-05-12 17:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%8.9%2026-05-12 20:45