The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 30.70%3.26fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%30.67%30.80%31.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.963.003.1037.74%33.77%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 46.72%2.14fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -5.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.98%46.67%48.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.982.0255.56%51.05%50.51%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.58%4.43fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%22.36%22.54%23.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.2226.67%24.86%25.00%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 30.70%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 46.72%; Draw: 22.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.22, with an expected value of -4.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.82%E -1.55%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -11.24%E -5.91%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.11%EV -6.30%E -1.52%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 20:35
GTbets🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.72%EV -5.74%E -1.87%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.93%EV -6.10%E -3.03%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.35%EV -4.71%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 09:45
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.79%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%EV -7.50%E -3.79%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -7.42%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 09:44
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -7.89%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.90%E -4.56%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-03 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -9.43%E -3.20%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.37%EV -13.57%E -7.34%K -15.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -5.17%E -1.23%K -1.61%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -10.30%E -5.37%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -7.42%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 09:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.55%EV -9.84%E -5.10%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -9.68%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 09:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -10.96%E -3.78%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.55%EV -10.30%E -5.37%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.63%EV -10.81%E -2.74%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.80%EV -11.88%E -4.14%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.53%EV -11.24%E -5.91%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -11.94%E -3.06%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 09:43
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.46%EV -18.64%E -7.03%K -11.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.31%EV -15.91%E -8.84%K -19.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.23%EV -15.33%E -4.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-03 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%4.9%2026-10-03 21:10
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-10-03 17:00
Bet Right🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%5.2%2026-10-03 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%6.9%2026-10-03 12:05
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%7.2%2026-10-03 09:45
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%7.2%2026-10-03 09:45
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%8.0%2026-10-03 09:45
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%8.3%2026-10-03 21:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%9.1%2026-10-03 09:50