The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 47.91%2.09fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -5.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.53%47.91%48.23%50.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.871.881.9756.18%53.57%53.19%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 29.42%3.40fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.18%29.42%29.10%30.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.203.3033.90%31.64%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.370%
Kelly -0.481%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.55%22.67%22.68%22.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.104.154.3425.64%24.39%24.10%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 47.91%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 29.42%; Draw: 22.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.34, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.53%EV -5.63%E -2.86%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 23:05
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -8.02%E -4.18%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.75%EV -7.91%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 21.76%EV -2.97%E -0.693%K -0.904%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.66%EV -8.02%E -4.18%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -13.20%E -4.48%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-14 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -8.50%E -4.45%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 23:05
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -9.94%E -5.29%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.91%E -0.881%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 05:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -9.94%E -5.29%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.91%E -0.881%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 05:54
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -9.94%E -5.29%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.91%E -0.881%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 05:54
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -9.94%E -5.29%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.91%E -0.881%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 05:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -9.94%E -5.29%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.91%E -0.881%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.78%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 05:55
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.02%EV -10.42%E -5.57%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.43%EV -3.20%E -0.973%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.55%EV -1.60%E -0.370%K -0.481%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 22:55
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -10.42%E -5.57%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.85%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-14 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.60%EV -12.81%E -7.04%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -10.26%E -3.36%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.39%EV -10.45%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-14 22:50
LeoVegas🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.82%EV -13.29%E -7.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.85%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -7.05%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-13 05:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.45%EV -13.29%E -7.34%K -16.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.32%EV -10.90%E -2.77%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-14 22:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.02%EV -14.25%E -7.96%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -10.26%E -3.36%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.21%EV -10.45%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-14 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.68%EV -14.73%E -8.27%K -18.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.38%EV -13.20%E -4.48%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.94%EV -10.45%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-14 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-05-14 23:05
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%4.7%2026-05-14 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-05-14 22:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-05-14 17:10
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-05-14 17:05
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-05-13 05:54
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-05-13 05:54
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%8.0%2026-05-14 16:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%9.2%2026-05-14 22:50
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%9.7%2026-05-14 23:05