The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 55.15%1.81fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -8.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.99%55.32%55.15%56.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.661.681.7164.94%60.40%59.52%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 24.47%4.09fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.59%24.31%24.47%25.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.673.703.8630.77%27.28%27.03%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.39%4.91fair odd
EV -5.61%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.67%20.37%20.39%21.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.464.504.6324.69%22.44%22.22%21.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 55.15%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 24.47%; Draw: 20.39%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.86, with an expected value of -5.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.15%EV -5.70%E -3.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.43%EV -5.55%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.41%EV -5.82%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 22:14
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.67%EV -5.70%E -3.33%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.13%EV -8.98%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.19%EV -5.61%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 00:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -6.22%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 00:10
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 12:00
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 12:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 12:00
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 12:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.47%E -2.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 12:00
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.91%E -4.73%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.26%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 04:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.56%E -5.83%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -6.22%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-03 04:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -9.56%E -5.83%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -10.69%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -10.30%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-03 04:50
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.70%EV -9.56%E -5.83%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -10.30%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-03 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -11.77%E -7.35%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.02%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -10.30%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-03 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 53.99%EV -12.87%E -8.15%K -22.19%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 24.94%EV -16.32%E -4.77%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.06%EV -17.44%E -4.31%K -5.72%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-04 23:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 54.07%EV -15.08%E -9.79%K -27.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.62%EV -20.48%E -6.30%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.31%EV -16.42%E -4.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-03 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%3.0%2026-03-04 22:50
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-03-04 22:10
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-03-03 05:01
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%6.3%2026-03-04 22:15
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-03-03 01:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-03-04 00:10
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%8.0%2026-03-03 12:00
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%8.0%2026-03-03 12:00
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%8.0%2026-03-03 12:00
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%8.2%2026-03-04 12:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%9.2%2026-03-04 22:10