The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Hershey Bears

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 22:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 49.00%2.04fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.506%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.40%49.00%48.64%50.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.931.952.0256.82%51.90%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hershey Bears (Visit)

Prediction 29.15%3.43fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%29.15%29.50%31.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.073.053.2733.90%32.57%32.79%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.85%4.58fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.44%21.85%21.86%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.104.104.3626.67%24.42%24.39%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 49.00%; Hershey Bears (Visit): 29.15%; Draw: 21.85%. For W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -1.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -12.56%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.21%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 22:05
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 12:34
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 12:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 12:34
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 12:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -1.02%E -0.506%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 12:34
GTbets🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.09%EV -3.96%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.83%EV -7.90%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.08%EV -6.68%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 12:35
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.54%EV -4.94%E -2.55%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -14.02%E -4.75%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.86%EV -13.68%E -3.46%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-01 12:33
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.64%EV -6.41%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%EV -8.19%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -7.12%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 04:04
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.98%EV -8.37%E -4.48%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.58%EV -4.69%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.44%EV -4.72%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.46%EV -10.82%E -5.95%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -8.19%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -10.40%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.13%EV -10.82%E -5.95%K -13.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -14.02%E -4.75%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.18%EV -13.68%E -3.46%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-02 21:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.13%EV -11.31%E -6.25%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.53%EV -14.02%E -4.75%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -14.77%E -3.79%K -5.09%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-02 21:54
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -11.80%E -6.56%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.73%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -8.21%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 22:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.87%EV -13.76%E -7.82%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.20%EV -11.10%E -3.64%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -18.05%E -4.81%K -6.56%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-02 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%3.0%2026-05-02 22:05
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-05-02 22:04
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%7.2%2026-05-02 03:30
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%8.0%2026-05-01 12:33
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%8.0%2026-05-01 12:34
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%8.4%2026-05-02 10:10
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%8.5%2026-05-01 12:34