Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins v Hershey Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

47%

31%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 47.27%2.12fair odd

EV -3.10%

Edge -1.51%

Kelly -2.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.13%47.47%47.27%48.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.921.922.0555.56%52.02%52.08%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hershey Bears (Visit)

Prediction 30.65%3.26fair odd

EV -2.83%

Edge -0.892%

Kelly -1.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.99%30.50%30.65%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.652.943.003.1737.74%34.04%33.33%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.08%4.53fair odd

EV -3.96%

Edge -0.910%

Kelly -1.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.30%22.03%22.08%24.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.044.054.3526.32%24.77%24.69%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 47.27%; Hershey Bears (Visit): 30.65%; Draw: 22.08%. For Hershey Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.17, with an expected value of -2.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.13%EV -3.10%E -1.51%K -2.95%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -15.00%E -3.90%K -5.26%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-13 09:25
Grosvenor🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.13%EV -3.10%E -1.51%K -2.95%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -15.00%E -3.90%K -5.26%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-13 09:24
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.28%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -6.51%E -2.13%K -3.17%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.03%EV -6.17%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-12 23:10
GTbets🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.88%E -3.49%K -7.09%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -4.97%E -1.60%K -2.37%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.69%EV -3.96%E -0.910%K -1.18%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-12 06:29
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-03-13 03:20
Codere (IT)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -9.25%E -4.82%K -10.05%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -11.10%E -3.83%K -5.84%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-03-12 13:05
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 46.93%EV -9.25%E -4.82%K -10.05%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -12.64%E -4.43%K -6.83%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -7.27%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-03-12 13:05
1xBet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -11.14%E -5.92%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.17I 31.55%NM 28.99%EV -2.83%E -0.892%K -1.30%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -8.38%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-13 23:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 46.57%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 31.10%EV -14.17%E -5.06%K -7.87%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.33%EV -13.90%E -3.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%	14.8%	2026-03-13 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 46.20%EV -12.55%E -6.79%K -14.77%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 31.31%EV -16.32%E -5.98%K -9.43%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.49%EV -16.10%E -4.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%	17.0%	2026-03-13 22:43
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -13.50%E -7.38%K -16.26%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.04%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -7.27%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000%	11.8%	2026-03-12 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 46.45%EV -14.92%E -8.29%K -18.65%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 31.55%EV -18.77%E -7.08%K -11.37%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.00%EV -16.10%E -4.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%	19.6%	2026-03-12 13:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	5.2%	2026-03-12 13:05
Bet Right🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%	2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%	5.2%	2026-03-13 23:00
Kalshi◎	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%	6.1%	2026-03-13 23:00
William Hill🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%	7.4%	2026-03-13 22:59
BetRivers🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%	8.0%	2026-03-13 09:24
Betr (AU)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%	8.1%	2026-03-12 23:15
Smarkets◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%	8.3%	2026-03-13 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%	9.0%	2026-03-13 23:00