The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Hartford Wolf Pack

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 33.93%2.95fair odd
EV -6.69%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.37%34.32%33.93%36.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.672.752.7540.82%37.49%36.36%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit)

Prediction 43.01%2.32fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.63%42.85%43.02%43.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.132.172.2050.25%46.98%46.19%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.06%4.34fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.470%
Kelly -0.615%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.83%22.83%23.05%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.953.954.2527.40%25.30%25.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 33.93%; Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit): 43.01%; Draw: 23.06%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.25, with an expected value of -2.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 21:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 20:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -6.24%E -2.86%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.92%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.53%E -3.50%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 16:50
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -9.68%E -4.61%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.93%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.02%EV -10.11%E -4.84%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -10.07%E -2.58%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 16:54
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -10.76%E -4.09%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.38%E -2.44%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -2.00%E -0.470%K -0.615%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 21:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -11.78%E -4.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -11.83%E -5.77%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -7.76%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.07%EV -11.78%E -4.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.80%EV -10.97%E -5.30%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.13%EV -11.68%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.49%EV -15.18%E -6.07%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.11%EV -13.98%E -6.99%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.91%K -3.94%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-04 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.00%EV -15.18%E -6.07%K -10.12%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 42.71%EV -14.41%E -7.24%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.29%EV -15.83%E -4.34%K -5.98%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-04 20:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.54%EV -16.87%E -6.89%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -7.53%E -3.50%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -5.46%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-04 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-10-04 20:45
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-10-04 16:50
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%6.2%2026-10-04 21:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-04 21:00
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-04 20:55
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%7.8%2026-10-04 20:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%9.4%2026-10-04 18:55