The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Belleville Senators

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 45.35%2.21fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.21%45.65%45.32%48.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.992.012.1452.91%50.24%49.75%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belleville Senators (Visit)

Prediction 32.95%3.03fair odd
EV +0.181%
Edge +0.060%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.76%32.68%33.04%33.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.802.843.0439.22%35.68%35.15%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.70%4.61fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.279%
Kelly -0.358%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%21.67%21.64%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.104.5526.32%24.13%24.39%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 45.35%; Belleville Senators (Visit): 32.95%; Draw: 21.70%. For Belleville Senators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.181%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -12.93%E -6.74%K -14.06%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.76%EV +0.181%E +0.060%K +0.089%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%EV -1.27%E -0.279%K -0.358%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 23:04
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -8.40%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -5.09%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -8.40%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -5.09%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -8.40%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -5.09%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -8.40%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -5.09%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -8.40%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -5.09%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 22:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.58%EV -8.40%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -5.09%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.19%EV -13.84%E -7.28%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -6.08%E -2.13%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -8.87%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 20:09
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.21%EV -2.96%E -1.38%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.31%EV -6.41%E -2.26%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.47%EV -8.65%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 20:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -7.04%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -7.73%E -2.76%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -6.70%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 20:25
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.31%E -4.65%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.38%E -3.41%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -8.87%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 20:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.27%EV -9.76%E -4.90%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -9.38%E -3.41%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -11.04%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-23 20:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.58%EV -10.21%E -5.16%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -11.02%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -6.70%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-23 20:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.14%EV -11.12%E -5.67%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.01%EV -11.68%E -4.36%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.85%EV -12.12%E -2.99%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-23 20:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.34%EV -13.84%E -7.28%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.13%EV -14.32%E -5.51%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -13.21%E -3.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-23 20:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 44.67%EV -14.29%E -7.56%K -16.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.11%EV -15.97%E -6.26%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.22%EV -17.55%E -4.62%K -6.27%G +0.000%18.4%2026-10-23 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-23 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-10-23 22:55
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-10-23 20:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%6.8%2026-10-23 22:15
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%7.6%2026-10-23 22:05
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%7.6%2026-10-23 22:05
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.71%8.4%2026-10-23 22:05
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%8.5%2026-10-23 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%9.0%2026-10-23 21:40