The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Utica Comets v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utica Comets (Local)

Prediction 36.59%2.73fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.07%36.27%36.59%38.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.482.5843.48%40.71%40.32%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 40.47%2.47fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.58%41.17%40.47%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.302.312.4048.78%43.49%43.20%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -0.875%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%22.56%22.93%23.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.904.2027.03%25.46%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utica Comets (Local): 36.59%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 40.47%; Draw: 22.93%. For Toronto Marlies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.54%EV -5.59%E -2.16%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.11%E -2.63%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.83%EV -5.28%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 23:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -6.68%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -6.92%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-09 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -6.68%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -17.04%E -8.31%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -3.67%E -0.875%K -1.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-10 22:25
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.10%EV -7.78%E -3.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.48%EV -6.51%E -2.82%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.42%EV -4.36%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 22:59
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -9.25%E -3.73%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -2.87%E -1.20%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 22:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 36.58%EV -9.98%E -4.06%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.35%EV -9.75%E -4.37%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -10.55%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-08 23:30
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.34%E -4.22%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 23:00
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.45%EV -12.17%E -5.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.58%EV -5.70%E -2.45%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -13.99%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-10 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -12.17%E -5.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.50%EV -12.99%E -6.04%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%EV -13.99%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-10 22:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.20%EV -14.00%E -5.96%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.90%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%EV -15.83%E -6.88%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.20%EV -10.96%E -4.98%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -15.14%E -4.09%K -5.61%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-10 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%EV -15.83%E -6.88%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.20%EV -10.96%E -4.98%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -15.14%E -4.09%K -5.61%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-10 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%2.9%2026-04-10 23:00
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-10 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-04-10 21:04
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%7.2%2026-04-10 21:25
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%7.2%2026-04-10 21:24
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-04-08 23:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-04-09 23:09
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%8.3%2026-04-10 11:05
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-04-10 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-04-09 23:05