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Utica Comets v Lehigh Valley Phantoms

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utica Comets (Local)

Prediction 35.85%2.79fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.07%35.68%35.85%36.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.6543.48%39.45%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit)

Prediction 41.34%2.42fair odd
EV -5.76%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.48%41.56%41.34%42.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.232.2850.00%45.66%44.84%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.35%22.75%22.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.954.004.1027.17%25.34%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utica Comets (Local): 35.85%; Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit): 41.34%; Draw: 22.81%. For Utica Comets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -4.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.60%EV -4.98%E -1.88%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.38%EV -5.76%E -2.52%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.48%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 23:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.21%EV -6.17%E -2.72%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.48%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 01:10
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.40%EV -7.82%E -3.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:09
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.40%EV -7.82%E -3.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:09
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.40%EV -7.82%E -3.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.40%EV -7.82%E -3.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.40%EV -7.82%E -3.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.40%EV -7.82%E -3.51%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:10
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -8.57%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -9.06%E -4.12%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-03 04:50
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.38%EV -8.57%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.77%EV -10.72%E -4.96%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -9.90%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-02 00:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -8.57%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.58%EV -13.20%E -6.28%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-03 22:25
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.29%EV -10.00%E -3.99%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -7.00%E -3.11%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.23%EV -10.59%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.94%EV -10.36%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.02%EV -9.48%E -4.33%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -11.04%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-02 06:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.36%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.71%EV -11.13%E -5.18%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-02 06:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -13.95%E -5.81%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.50%EV -11.13%E -5.18%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%EV -14.46%E -3.86%K -5.26%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-03 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.97%EV -14.67%E -6.16%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.77%EV -13.20%E -6.28%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.26%EV -16.06%E -4.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-03 23:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.08%EV -17.53%E -7.62%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.49%EV -17.33%E -8.66%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.43%EV -15.60%E -4.22%K -5.78%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-02 06:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-03-03 23:10
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-03-03 23:50
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-02 22:55
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%6.5%2026-03-02 01:48
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-03-02 00:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-03-03 11:19
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-03-02 00:10
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-03-02 00:10
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-03-02 00:10
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-03 12:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%9.0%2026-03-03 11:19