The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tucson Roadrunners v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tucson Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 31.44%3.18fair odd
EV +3.75%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%30.99%31.44%34.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.752.753.3041.67%36.36%36.36%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 42.58%2.35fair odd
EV -6.33%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -5.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%42.61%42.58%43.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.162.2050.51%46.88%46.40%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.98%3.85fair odd
EV +8.08%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +2.56%
Growth +0.207%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%26.40%25.98%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.733.904.1633.33%26.84%25.64%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tucson Roadrunners (Local): 31.44%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 42.58%; Draw: 25.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.08%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -12.91%E -4.66%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.27%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.68%EV +8.08%E +1.94%K +2.56%G +0.207%6.0%2026-03-28 00:25
1xBet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 34.79%EV -17.00%E -6.44%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.53%EV -8.03%E -3.72%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.68%EV +5.22%E +1.29%K +1.71%G +0.089%8.9%2026-03-28 01:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -6.33%E -2.88%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.5%2026-03-28 02:05
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.9%2026-03-27 02:14
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.9%2026-03-27 02:14
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.9%2026-03-27 02:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.9%2026-03-27 02:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.9%2026-03-27 03:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -13.54%E -4.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -7.18%E -3.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%7.9%2026-03-27 03:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -18.26%E -7.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.58%E -5.04%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV +1.33%E +0.340%K +0.457%G +0.006%11.7%2026-03-27 03:10
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.51%EV -15.11%E -5.60%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.68%EV -9.73%E -4.59%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -1.27%E -0.335%K -0.454%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-27 02:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -16.68%E -6.30%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 42.30%EV -9.31%E -4.37%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -1.27%E -0.335%K -0.454%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-28 02:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.87%EV -19.83%E -7.78%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.13%EV -12.71%E -6.20%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.99%EV -6.47%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-28 02:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.87%EV -19.83%E -7.78%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.13%EV -12.71%E -6.20%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.99%EV -6.47%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-28 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -24.54%E -10.23%K -17.53%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 41.97%EV -15.69%E -7.93%K -16.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.41%EV -7.77%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-27 03:10
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV +0.608%E +0.190%K +0.276%G +0.002%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -10.58%E -5.04%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -14.26%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-28 03:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV +3.75%E +1.14%K +1.63%G +0.061%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.45%E -3.93%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -22.06%E -7.35%K -11.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-28 03:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -8.82%E -3.04%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -10.58%E -5.04%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -22.06%E -7.35%K -11.03%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-28 03:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-03-27 03:29
Bet Right🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%5.4%2026-03-27 20:10
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%7.5%2026-03-27 03:30
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%7.5%2026-03-27 03:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%7.6%2026-03-27 02:14
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-03-27 21:35
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%8.3%2026-03-27 02:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%9.0%2026-03-28 03:05
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 45.75%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%10.4%2026-03-27 02:14
Kalshi◎1.08I 92.59%NM 50.46%1.10I 90.91%NM 49.54%83.5%2026-03-27 21:40