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Tucson Roadrunners v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tucson Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 33.30%3.00fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.95%33.49%33.30%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.752.8539.22%36.91%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 44.77%2.23fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.38%44.79%44.77%45.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.052.072.1251.81%48.74%48.31%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.93%4.56fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -0.796%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.30%21.72%21.93%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.094.104.4026.32%24.43%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tucson Roadrunners (Local): 33.30%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 44.77%; Draw: 21.93%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -3.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%EV -5.70%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -6.77%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.80%EV -6.87%E -3.30%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -6.79%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-22 02:55
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 32.95%EV -7.11%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.63%EV -7.77%E -3.77%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-22 22:45
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -5.08%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 23:14
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -5.08%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 23:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -5.08%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 00:10
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -5.08%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 23:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -5.08%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 23:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%EV -5.08%E -2.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 23:15
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -8.21%E -4.01%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 03:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.45%E -5.23%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -7.89%E -1.88%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-22 02:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 44.75%EV -10.01%E -4.98%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -10.08%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-22 02:55
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -11.77%E -4.44%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.38%EV -7.32%E -3.54%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -13.37%E -3.39%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-20 23:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.36%EV -13.43%E -5.17%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.34%EV -11.80%E -5.99%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -3.50%E -0.796%K -1.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-22 22:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.33%EV -13.43%E -5.17%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.44%EV -12.69%E -6.51%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -14.47%E -3.71%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.4%2026-02-22 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 33.25%EV -14.43%E -5.61%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.27%EV -13.59%E -7.04%K -14.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.48%EV -16.66%E -4.38%K -5.95%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-22 22:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.88%EV -15.10%E -5.92%K -9.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.53%EV -13.14%E -6.77%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.60%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-22 02:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%4.2%2026-02-22 22:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-02-22 21:15
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-02-22 16:40
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%6.8%2026-02-22 22:55
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-02-22 02:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-02-22 04:59
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%8.2%2026-02-22 11:04
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%8.3%2026-02-20 23:14
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%8.3%2026-02-20 23:14
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%8.3%2026-02-20 23:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%9.4%2026-02-22 16:45