The School of Odds
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Tucson Roadrunners v Henderson Silver Knights

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tucson Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 34.46%2.90fair odd
EV -8.00%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -4.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.91%34.46%34.46%35.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.582.602.6740.82%38.76%38.46%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henderson Silver Knights (Visit)

Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd
EV +0.870%
Edge +0.375%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.21%43.48%43.48%43.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.272.3250.00%45.26%43.96%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.07%4.53fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -0.975%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%22.07%22.07%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.953.904.3427.03%25.34%25.64%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tucson Roadrunners (Local): 34.46%; Henderson Silver Knights (Visit): 43.48%; Draw: 22.07%. For Henderson Silver Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.870%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +0.870%E +0.375%K +0.659%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -13.94%E -3.57%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 02:05
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -13.86%E -5.54%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -3.04%E -1.36%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -17.25%E -4.60%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-19 02:05
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.00%EV -8.00%E -3.00%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.47%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.53%EV -4.23%E -0.975%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 01:59
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.33%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -12.14%E -4.76%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-19 02:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.91%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.62%EV -10.43%E -5.07%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -11.73%E -2.93%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 02:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.54%EV -13.86%E -5.54%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.12%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%EV -18.35%E -4.96%K -6.80%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-19 02:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.74%EV -15.58%E -6.36%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.56%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.70%EV -17.25%E -4.60%K -6.27%G +0.000%17.5%2026-04-19 02:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-04-19 02:05
Bet Right🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%5.2%2026-04-19 01:59
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-04-19 02:05
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%8.0%2026-04-19 02:05
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%8.0%2026-04-19 02:05
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%8.1%2026-04-19 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-04-19 01:59
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%8.3%2026-04-19 02:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%8.8%2026-04-19 01:59
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 51.70%1.67I 59.88%NM 48.30%24.0%2026-04-19 02:05