The School of Odds
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Tucson Roadrunners v Henderson Silver Knights

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tucson Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 35.80%2.79fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.43%35.50%35.80%37.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.452.6942.02%40.15%40.82%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henderson Silver Knights (Visit)

Prediction 41.43%2.41fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.96%41.69%41.43%42.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.252.232.3848.78%44.46%44.84%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -0.863%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.99%22.81%22.78%23.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.994.004.2327.03%25.07%25.00%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tucson Roadrunners (Local): 35.80%; Henderson Silver Knights (Visit): 41.43%; Draw: 22.78%. For Henderson Silver Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.05%EV -3.71%E -1.38%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.66%EV -8.45%E -3.82%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.29%EV -3.65%E -0.863%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 01:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -6.93%E -2.67%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.79%E -3.02%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.61%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 06:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -6.93%E -2.67%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -13.00%E -6.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -11.17%E -2.86%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-11 22:10
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -8.72%E -3.42%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.86%E -4.03%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-11 06:50
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.07%EV -9.44%E -3.73%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.67%EV -9.28%E -4.24%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -6.61%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-11 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.07%EV -10.51%E -4.20%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV -10.93%E -5.08%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -6.61%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-11 06:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.98%EV -10.51%E -4.20%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.26%EV -9.69%E -4.44%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -10.03%E -2.54%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-11 06:50
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.30%E -5.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -1.40%E -0.590%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-11 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.30%E -5.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -1.40%E -0.590%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-11 11:50
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.30%E -5.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -1.40%E -0.590%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-11 11:50
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.30%E -5.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -1.40%E -0.590%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-11 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.30%E -5.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -1.40%E -0.590%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-11 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.30%E -5.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -1.40%E -0.590%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.89%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-11 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%EV -14.09%E -5.87%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.90%EV -15.08%E -7.35%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%EV -12.30%E -3.20%K -4.32%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-11 06:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.68%EV -14.09%E -5.87%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.17%EV -13.83%E -6.65%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.15%EV -15.72%E -4.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-12 01:03
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.81%EV -14.81%E -6.22%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.12%EV -4.72%E -2.05%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.17%E -2.86%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-11 11:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%5.1%2026-03-12 01:25
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-11 06:45
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-03-11 07:40
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-03-11 11:50
Bally Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-03-11 12:40
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-03-11 12:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-03-12 01:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-03-12 01:24
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.68%9.2%2026-03-12 00:14
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 46.45%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%9.8%2026-03-11 20:15