The School of Odds
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Toronto Marlies v W-B/Scranton Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.03%37.10%36.61%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.6243.48%39.91%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 40.56%2.47fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.83%40.13%40.56%41.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.302.3947.62%44.43%43.48%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.83%4.38fair odd
EV -5.96%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.33%22.77%22.83%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.633.913.904.1227.55%25.59%25.64%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 36.61%; W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit): 40.56%; Draw: 22.83%. For W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.39, with an expected value of -3.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.03%EV -4.08%E -1.56%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.91%EV -11.16%E -5.10%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.06%EV -9.15%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 19:20
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 20:09
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 20:10
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 20:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -6.64%E -2.61%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -6.42%E -1.56%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 19:30
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.70%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.43%EV -3.05%E -1.28%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.87%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 00:44
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.61%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -8.70%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 19:29
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.98%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.34%EV -9.54%E -4.28%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.26%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-20 20:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.39%EV -9.21%E -3.71%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.47%EV -9.54%E -4.28%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-22 19:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -8.70%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 19:29
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.17%EV -12.14%E -5.06%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.37%EV -12.79%E -5.95%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.46%EV -15.55%E -4.20%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-22 19:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.53%EV -13.97%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.88%EV -14.82%E -7.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%EV -13.26%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-22 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.29%EV -13.97%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.22%EV -14.00%E -6.61%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.49%EV -17.14%E -4.72%K -6.52%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-22 19:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -15.80%E -6.87%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -8.70%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 19:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%2.8%2026-03-22 19:55
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-03-22 19:24
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-22 19:30
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%7.8%2026-03-20 20:10
Bally Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%7.8%2026-03-20 20:10
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-03-22 19:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-03-22 17:44
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%8.3%2026-03-22 19:30
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%8.4%2026-03-20 20:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-03-22 19:24