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Toronto Marlies v Rochester Americans

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 40.90%2.45fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.21%40.90%40.90%41.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.292.3347.62%44.62%43.76%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Americans (Visit)

Prediction 36.93%2.71fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%36.93%36.93%37.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.532.6042.55%39.82%39.53%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.17%4.51fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.17%22.17%24.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.923.854.2527.03%25.49%25.97%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 40.90%; Rochester Americans (Visit): 36.93%; Draw: 22.17%. For Rochester Americans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -3.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.53%EV -4.70%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.88%EV -5.46%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.59%EV -7.33%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 18:09
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:34
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:35
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.98%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 06:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.95%EV -7.16%E -3.15%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.67%E -3.07%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.78%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 23:04
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.87%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.90%EV -8.78%E -3.55%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.11%E -2.22%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 20:55
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -7.67%E -3.07%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -16.86%E -4.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-21 06:34
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -9.52%E -3.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -11.32%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-22 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -11.36%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-22 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.43%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.99%EV -13.21%E -5.62%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.58%EV -14.65%E -3.80%K -5.14%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-22 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.94%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.82%EV -11.36%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%EV -17.97%E -4.86%K -6.66%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-22 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.88%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.53%EV -13.21%E -5.62%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%EV -15.76%E -4.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-22 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-04-22 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-04-22 20:55
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-04-22 20:49
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%7.5%2026-04-21 02:00
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%7.5%2026-04-21 02:00
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-04-21 02:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-04-21 23:10
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-04-22 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%8.6%2026-04-21 02:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%9.0%2026-04-22 20:54