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Toronto Marlies v Manitoba Moose

Kickoff: 2026-03-25 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 48.31%2.07fair odd
EV -5.80%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -6.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.01%48.73%48.31%50.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.901.931.9556.50%52.75%51.81%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manitoba Moose (Visit)

Prediction 29.93%3.34fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.01%29.55%29.93%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.093.153.2335.09%32.36%31.75%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.77%4.59fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -0.977%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.07%21.71%21.77%24.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.023.954.4426.67%24.87%25.32%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 48.31%; Manitoba Moose (Visit): 29.93%; Draw: 21.77%. For Manitoba Moose (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.23, with an expected value of -3.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.97%EV -9.63%E -3.19%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.07%EV -3.36%E -0.757%K -0.977%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-25 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.15%EV -6.28%E -3.24%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.23%E -2.33%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -6.41%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 23:00
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.59%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.03%EV -3.34%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.38%EV -8.80%E -2.10%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-25 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.81%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -14.03%E -3.55%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-25 22:54
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.81%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -14.03%E -3.55%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-25 22:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.81%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -14.03%E -3.55%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-25 22:54
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -18.38%E -4.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-25 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -18.38%E -4.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-25 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -18.38%E -4.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-25 23:00
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -10.22%E -3.41%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.58%E -2.04%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-25 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.20%EV -9.18%E -4.88%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -11.72%E -3.97%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -6.41%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-25 23:00
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.96%EV -9.18%E -4.88%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -5.74%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -16.20%E -4.21%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-25 22:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.33%EV -9.66%E -5.17%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -8.73%E -2.86%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -10.76%E -2.62%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-25 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.36%EV -12.08%E -6.64%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.25%EV -14.71%E -5.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%EV -16.20%E -4.21%K -5.69%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-25 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.50%EV -13.04%E -7.25%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.00%EV -14.71%E -5.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.50%EV -17.29%E -4.55%K -6.18%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-25 22:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.64%EV -14.49%E -8.19%K -18.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.34%EV -8.58%E -2.04%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-25 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%4.7%2026-03-25 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-03-25 22:59
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%7.2%2026-03-25 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%7.2%2026-03-25 23:00
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%7.2%2026-03-25 23:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-03-25 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-03-25 23:00
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%8.4%2026-03-25 23:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-25 23:00