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Toronto Marlies v Laval Rocket

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 32.23%3.10fair odd
EV -6.53%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.85%32.26%32.23%34.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.752.9038.46%36.38%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Laval Rocket (Visit)

Prediction 45.36%2.20fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -0.938%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%45.47%45.36%46.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.072.082.1852.08%48.24%47.96%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.41%4.46fair odd
EV -0.293%
Edge -0.066%
Kelly -0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%22.27%22.41%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.003.954.4527.03%25.03%25.32%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 32.23%; Laval Rocket (Visit): 45.36%; Draw: 22.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.45, with an expected value of -0.293%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.94%EV -7.91%E -3.90%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.89%EV -4.55%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 19:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -7.00%E -3.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -10.38%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 20:05
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -8.14%E -2.86%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -9.27%E -4.64%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.38%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 20:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -9.76%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.66%EV -10.18%E -5.14%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -8.14%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-19 20:03
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:01
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.81%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -1.11%E -0.508%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.91%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 20:01
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.83%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -9.27%E -4.64%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -8.14%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 20:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -11.37%E -4.13%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.27%EV -12.45%E -6.45%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-19 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.89%EV -12.98%E -4.81%K -7.63%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.84%EV -12.90%E -6.72%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -17.10%E -4.62%K -6.33%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-19 20:03
1xBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.89%EV -13.62%E -5.08%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.10%EV -3.83%E -1.81%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.01%EV -0.293%E -0.066%K -0.085%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 19:59
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.93%EV -14.59%E -5.51%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.41%EV -3.83%E -1.81%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -14.86%E -3.91%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-19 20:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.91%EV -14.59%E -5.51%K -8.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.73%EV -11.54%E -5.92%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.36%EV -12.62%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-19 19:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.04%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -11.54%E -5.92%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.91%EV -15.98%E -4.26%K -5.81%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-19 20:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-04-19 20:00
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-04-19 19:59
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%7.2%2026-04-19 20:00
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%7.3%2026-04-19 20:00
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%7.3%2026-04-19 20:00
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%7.8%2026-04-19 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-04-19 19:58
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-04-19 20:00
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.71%9.0%2026-04-19 20:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%9.4%2026-04-19 19:59