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Toronto Marlies v Laval Rocket

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 41.27%2.42fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.67%41.27%41.28%42.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.262.302.3848.78%44.22%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Laval Rocket (Visit)

Prediction 35.97%2.78fair odd
EV -7.93%
Edge -3.10%
Kelly -5.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.76%35.97%35.89%37.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.482.5642.55%40.37%40.32%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.77%4.39fair odd
EV -0.286%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%22.77%22.83%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.064.104.3826.32%24.63%24.39%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 41.27%; Laval Rocket (Visit): 35.97%; Draw: 22.77%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.38, with an expected value of -0.286%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -1.78%E -0.748%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.62%EV -9.73%E -3.88%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.70%EV -5.29%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-05 15:38
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -3.02%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -10.81%E -4.36%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.13%EV -7.14%E -3.18%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -8.29%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-05 21:49
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -7.14%E -3.18%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -13.68%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.94%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-05 14:40
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.12%EV -8.38%E -3.78%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.53%EV -7.93%E -3.10%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.35%EV -0.286%E -0.065%K -0.085%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-05 22:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -9.21%E -4.19%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -8.29%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -8.94%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-05 21:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV -11.27%E -5.24%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.07%EV -10.09%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -6.66%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-05 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.23%EV -12.10%E -5.68%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.84%EV -11.89%E -4.85%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.93%EV -12.81%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-05 22:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.19%EV -13.33%E -6.35%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.04%EV -13.68%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-05 22:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.70%EV -15.40%E -7.51%K -14.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.38%EV -15.48%E -6.59%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.92%EV -11.21%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-05 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-05-05 21:50
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-05-05 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-05 19:59
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%7.7%2026-05-05 14:40
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%7.7%2026-05-05 14:40
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-05-05 22:50
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%8.2%2026-05-05 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-05-05 15:40
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-05-05 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-05-05 15:40