The School of Odds
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Toronto Marlies v Hamilton Hammers

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 23:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 45.85%2.18fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.61%45.85%45.85%47.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.122.1252.63%48.87%47.17%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamilton Hammers (Visit)

Prediction 32.46%3.08fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.984%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.29%32.46%32.46%34.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.652.9940.00%37.17%37.74%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.69%4.61fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%21.69%21.69%22.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.184.304.3626.67%23.91%23.26%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 45.85%; Hamilton Hammers (Visit): 32.46%; Draw: 21.69%. For Toronto Marlies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -2.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.61%EV -2.80%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:15
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.61%EV -2.80%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.61%EV -2.80%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:15
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.61%EV -2.80%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.61%EV -2.80%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.61%EV -2.80%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -6.73%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.50%EV -6.93%E -3.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.46%EV -12.36%E -4.58%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 22:00
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.25%EV -9.22%E -4.66%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.29%EV -2.94%E -0.984%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.46%EV -5.42%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.46%EV -10.60%E -5.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.72%EV -13.98%E -5.28%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.82%EV -17.57%E -4.62%K -6.28%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-21 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 43.73%EV -11.51%E -5.97%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.76%EV -18.85%E -7.54%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.51%EV -18.66%E -4.97%K -6.78%G +0.000%18.5%2026-10-21 22:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.19%EV -12.89%E -6.78%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -7.49%E -2.63%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-10-21 22:00
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-10-21 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-10-21 22:44
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-10-21 22:15
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-10-21 22:15
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%8.3%2026-10-21 22:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-10-21 22:25
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 57.72%2.13I 46.95%NM 42.28%11.1%2026-10-21 23:05