The School of Odds
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Toronto Marlies v Cleveland Monsters

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 44.13%2.27fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.74%44.13%44.17%44.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.102.142.1951.02%47.70%46.73%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Monsters (Visit)

Prediction 33.30%3.00fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.50%33.30%33.14%34.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8839.22%36.91%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.57%4.43fair odd
EV -5.19%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.89%22.57%22.69%24.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.784.074.154.2026.46%24.57%24.10%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 44.13%; Cleveland Monsters (Visit): 33.30%; Draw: 22.57%. For Toronto Marlies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.19, with an expected value of -3.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.74%EV -3.36%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -4.10%E -1.42%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.76%EV -14.67%E -3.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-22 22:59
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 22:19
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.44%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.73%EV -5.43%E -1.91%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -7.33%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.43%E -3.06%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-22 22:59
LeoVegas🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.63%EV -8.66%E -4.18%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.34%EV -12.42%E -4.72%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-22 22:20
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.54%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.43%E -3.06%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.71%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-22 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -9.54%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.23%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-22 22:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.87%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -10.09%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.89%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-22 19:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.92%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.15%EV -11.76%E -4.44%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.93%EV -13.54%E -3.54%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-22 22:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.03%EV -13.51%E -6.89%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.84%EV -15.09%E -5.92%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.13%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-22 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-05-22 22:09
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-05-22 19:20
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-05-22 22:49
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-05-22 20:19
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%7.6%2026-05-22 19:20
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%7.6%2026-05-22 19:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-22 19:20
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%8.2%2026-05-22 19:20
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%8.3%2026-05-22 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-05-22 19:20