The School of Odds
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Toronto Marlies v Chicago Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 38.73%2.58fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.70%38.58%38.73%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.382.4745.45%42.17%42.02%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 38.42%2.60fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -4.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.20%38.14%38.42%39.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.332.4545.45%42.98%42.92%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.86%4.38fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.29%22.86%24.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.984.104.1227.78%25.10%24.39%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 38.73%; Chicago Wolves (Visit): 38.42%; Draw: 22.86%. For Toronto Marlies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.47, with an expected value of -4.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.17%EV -4.34%E -1.76%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.95%EV -7.03%E -2.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.88%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 19:54
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -10.49%E -4.50%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 06:19
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -10.49%E -4.50%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 06:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -10.49%E -4.50%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 06:20
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -10.49%E -4.50%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 06:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -10.49%E -4.50%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 06:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -10.49%E -4.50%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 06:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.19%EV -5.88%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 06:20
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%EV -7.83%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -13.56%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.43%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 06:20
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 38.62%EV -8.60%E -3.65%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.30%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 19:54
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -8.99%E -3.83%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -9.72%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 06:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -8.99%E -3.83%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.20%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -17.72%E -4.92%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-01 20:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.68%EV -9.77%E -4.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 38.51%EV -10.11%E -4.32%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.81%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-01 06:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.93%E -4.75%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -11.64%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-01 06:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -12.86%E -5.72%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -13.56%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-01 20:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 38.53%EV -14.03%E -6.32%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 38.36%EV -14.33%E -6.43%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.12%EV -15.43%E -4.17%K -5.72%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-01 20:33
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -14.80%E -6.73%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -15.48%E -7.04%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.22%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-01 06:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-03-01 18:15
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-03-01 06:20
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%5.3%2026-03-01 20:55
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-03-01 20:20
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-03-01 07:00
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.14%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.86%8.4%2026-03-01 09:14
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%8.4%2026-03-01 06:20
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%8.4%2026-03-01 06:19
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.95%8.4%2026-03-01 06:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-03-01 06:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-03-01 07:54