The School of Odds
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Toronto Marlies v Chicago Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-06-19 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd
EV -6.08%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.46%42.12%41.74%44.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.212.2348.78%45.91%45.25%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 35.15%2.85fair odd
EV +0.527%
Edge +0.184%
Kelly +0.283%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.65%35.15%35.60%36.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.662.752.8641.67%37.52%36.36%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.73%4.40fair odd
EV -5.21%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.99%22.73%22.65%24.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.923.854.1727.03%25.49%25.97%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 42.12%; Chicago Wolves (Visit): 35.15%; Draw: 22.73%. For Chicago Wolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.527%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.90%EV -12.39%E -5.96%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV +0.527%E +0.184%K +0.283%G +0.001%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.45%EV -5.44%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-19 22:49
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.67%EV -5.21%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 11:10
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.84%EV -6.08%E -2.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -3.34%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -6.85%E -2.59%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -9.07%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-19 22:59
LeoVegas🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.69%EV -9.02%E -4.18%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -6.85%E -2.59%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34%EV -15.89%E -4.30%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-19 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.75%EV -6.50%E -2.93%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.61%E -3.31%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.80%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-19 09:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.07%EV -12.13%E -4.85%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -6.80%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-19 09:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -12.13%E -4.85%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -11.35%E -2.91%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-19 22:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.46%EV -10.29%E -4.83%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.61%EV -12.83%E -5.17%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.94%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.2%2026-06-19 22:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.90%EV -13.66%E -6.66%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%EV -15.64%E -6.52%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%EV -12.48%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%16.4%2026-06-19 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-06-19 23:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-06-19 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-06-19 22:49
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-06-19 18:20
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-06-19 18:18
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-06-19 06:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%8.1%2026-06-19 10:00
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%8.2%2026-06-19 11:10
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%8.5%2026-06-19 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%8.8%2026-06-19 22:59